Today, the N.A.R. (which I contend actually stands for “numbers aren’t real”) reported the following:
The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million units last month, the highest since May 2010
Ahhh…but all is not as it seems…the NAR December data was just revised from +5% to -0.5% (from 4.61 million to 4.38 million). Since December market expectations were for a +5.2% print. Needless to say, if this number had been unrevised, the January +4.3% increase would have been a decline!
So all of the celebration that great December number encouraged was all for naught. BUT, when we now compare the January number to the DOWNWARDLY REVISED December number…things look good for 2 months in a row!…until January’s number is quietly revised downward so February’s numbers look good. Or any softening in February will be blamed on the ‘winter’ weather! You can look at the NAR housing numbers as if they were Silly Putty; all soft and pliable at first, but when left out for a month, they shrink and firm up.
Regarding pricing, distressed properties, foreclosures and short sales, which typically occur at deep discounts, accounted for 35 percent of overall sales last month, up from 32 percent in December.
The National Association of Realtors reported that the median home price in January fell 2% from December to $154,700. That's the lowest price reading since November of 2001, before the run-up in home prices that became known as the housing bubble.
And from Zillow today: Online real estate firm Zillow sees home prices continuing on a downward trajectory.
The firm made this conclusion in its monthly forecast of what to expect in the upcoming S&P Case-Shiller Composite Home Price report. Zillow also projects home prices tied to the 10-city composite index will fall 3.9% year-over-year…
What do you think will happen when interest rates start to rise?
If you’d like to discuss your options and how the current and near term market environment will impact your sale or purchase decisions, call me directly at 561-602-1258
Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson
