NAR..."oops"!

I think it's time to tell everyone what I have known for a long time now...What the acronym NAR actually stands for. I know that they would like you to believe that it is 'National Association of Realtors', but the real truth, revealed to all recently is that NAR stands for: 'Numbers Aren't Real'!

The NAR US Housing Home Sales Figures were artificially inflated by at least 11% per year for the period of 2007-2010. Nice work NAR! They said there were a few "errors' in data collection and interpretation". And I think that it goes back to BEFORE 2007...why did they only go back and revise to that year?

“Sales were weaker than people thought (or were lead to believe by NAR reports),” said chagrined NAR spokesman Walter Malony. Data firm CoreLogic accused the NAR of over-counting home sales back in May of this year. At the time, the organization insisted that any issues with their numbers would be “relatively minor.” Unfortunately, NAR economist Lawrence Yun has revised that prediction to say that the changes in reporting will be “meaningful,” adding that “this means the housing market’s downturn was deeper than what was initially thought”.

 Being in the business every day for a long time now, I began to see a slowdown in the 1st half of 2006 and an 'accelleration' in price and volume declines right at the beginning of 2007. My analysis shows that the air started to come out of the bubble, at least in Palm Beach County, right at the end of 2005.

I could go in to their methodology and poke a thousand holes in it...but I'd bore everyone but myself.

The readers who regularly read my blog posts will know that I don't "toe the line" when it comes to the NAR/FAR, etc. Coincidentally, a blog post I wrote just about 5 weeks ago, http://winstontrails.blogspot.com/2011/11/if-they-keep-predicting-market.html skewers the NAR for their inept (intentionally misleading) comments.

Below are the charts that reflect the adjustments.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

So...what does this all mean? And why now? What is the effect of this revision?

Well, I think the "why now" question can be answered by NAR being called out on their numbers by CoreLogic a few months ago.

But the "what does this all mean" question has many possible answers depending upon the angle it is being viewed from. My obvious, but cynical, view is that the NAR and administration can now more easily report "improvments" in home sales. The new sales figures will be compared to the re-benchmarked historical sales and will paint a rosy housing and economic picture going forward. And if the reporters (TV and print) continue to just repeat data rather than dig in to the meaning of the data, the re-benchmarked (lower) figures will fade into distant memory...and the 'improving home sales numbers' will be evidence of our 'robust and recovering' economy.

Lastly, what does this effect? This question is better answered by a formally trained economist, but I have to believe that these numbers somehow impact GDP in a negative sense, retroactively.

If you've read this far, I commend you! Seriously though, if you are considering your options, whether it be selling or purchasing real estate, call me. You don't want to take the chance of ending up getting advice and consulting with an NAR drone who is taught to memorize "objection handling dialogs' and sales tactics.

My direct line is 561-602-1258 or

Yun must be in The Twilight Zone...

The stock market surges on DECLINING home sales...the 'market' expected the Natl Assn of Realtors report to come in at 4.8M, instead it came in at 4.81M and everyone is ecstatic! Last months sales were originally reported at 5.05M...but revised downward to 5.0M- (a common tactic...and watch, the 4.81 will get 'revised down' at some point).

And the NAR chief economist, Lawerence Yun, had the following (laughable) reasoning for the decline:...temporary factors held back the market in May... “Spiking gasoline prices along with widespread severe weather hurt house shopping in April, leading to soft figures for actual closings in May,” he said. “Current housing market activity indicates a very slow pace of broader economic activity, but recent reversals in oil prices are likely to mitigate the impact going forward. The pace of sales activity in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than the first half, and will be much stronger than the second half of last year.”

I have to tell you...most of the time I am embarrassed to be a paying member of NAR. Spiking gasoline prices? Isn't that pathetic? You mean to tell me that Mr. and Mrs. potential homebuyer, just about to sign on the dotted line, decided that they couldn't afford a house because gas rose by forty cents? Let's figure this out; suppose that the average mileage is 18 MPG, the average miles driven per year is 15,000...that would be 834 gallons a year...at 40 cents a gallon hike that is an extra $374 per year, or an $31 per month, or an extra $7.75 per week! If $31 a month is turning buyers into non-buyers...they should not have been thinking about buying in the first place!

When are we going to get some truth out of the NAR PR machine? No wonder agents are regarded on par with the stereotypical used-car salesman...it is well deserved!