The ‘shadow’ market is not in the shadows any more…it’s becoming plainly visible…and the numbers are staggering. According to a report released recently by Lender Processing Services, “foreclosure inventory levels are at 30 times monthly foreclosure sales volume.” As a result of this massive backlog, we can expect more downward pressure on home values. The statistics on the homes not yet owned by the banks but are currently IN the foreclosure process are also staggering, with LPS reporting that the average loan currently in foreclosure has been delinquent for 537 days, and 30 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made payments in more than two years.
In part, due to slower processing times on foreclosures, it is unlikely that this backlog will disperse any time soon. In fact, although total loan delinquency has fallen nearly two percentage points over last year and foreclosure starts are down 14 percent from last year(partly due to the robosigning fiasco)…with the “non-current inventory” logging in at nearly 7 million, the backlog is likely here to stay.
Many analysts have been predicting that 2011 will be the beginning of a recovery for many sectors of the real estate market…but sadly, I are not on that bandwagon for us here in South Florida. Too much distressed inventory to work through…too many sellers that are NOT upside-down waiting for any evidence of stabilization to put their homes up for sale. Economics 101: Supply and Demand. There’s still an imbalance and will be for the foreseeable future. With this foreclosure backlog that we’ve been talking about for a looong time, we are quite pessimistic about the direction of local home prices.
And, what of the talk of the tightening of lending standards even further. Making 30% down the norm…increasing FHA down payments…interest rates going up…eliminating the mortgage interest tax deduction…does anyone really believe that these will HELP the housing market?
I, too, am a homeowner here in Palm Beach County…I’d love to be able to march in step with all of the so-called analysts/experts and say that the sun is getting ready to shine on our home values once again…but none of the evidence points to that.
However, there are still occasions where it makes sense for someone to buy; up to a certain price-point, thanks to low interest rates and 3.5% down-payment loans, it is less expensive to buy than to rent. And for buyers with a long enough time horizon there are some crazy good deals out there. Also, right now is a great time for investors as the cash-on-cash return is excellent for a big segment of the under $150k market. But when we, at The Jackson Realty Group, work with a buyer…we have them convince US (not the other way around) that now is the right time for them to buy. It’s not right for everyone right now. As a matter of fact, I find myself often recommending that renting is the best option for many clients who thought that they wanted to buy…but that’s what we do…we counsel and consult, we’re not salespeople trying to overcome objections!
For sellers (or those thinking about selling) we are saying “you want to be the NEXT home to sell”…in a market expected to continue its decline, it is expensive to wait.
If you’d like to discuss with me what your best options are at this point, either as a buyer or a seller, please call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258.
Thanks for reading,
Steve Jackson
