Short sales, foreclosures and credit score

Below, taken directly from an article recently published on the FICO® Banking Analytics Blog

Research looks at how mortgage delinquencies affect scores;

How much impact does a short sale have on FICO® Scores? How about a foreclosure? Since I frequently hear these questions from clients and others, I thought I’d share new FICO® research that sheds light on this very subject.

The FICO® study simulated various types of mortgage delinquencies on three representative credit bureau profiles of consumers scoring 680, 720 and 780, respectively. I say “representative profiles” because we focused on consumers whose credit characteristics (e.g., utilization, delinquency history, age of file) were typical of the three score points considered. All consumers had an active currently-paid-as-agreed mortgage on file.

Results are shown below. The first chart shows the impact on the score for each stage of delinquency, and the second shows how long it takes the score to fully “recover” after the fact.

All in all, we saw:

•The magnitude of FICO® Score impact is highly dependent on the starting score.
•There's no significant difference in score impact between short sale/deed-in-lieu/settlement and foreclosure.
•While a score may begin to improve sooner, it could take up to 7-10 years to fully recover, assuming  all other obligations are paid as agreed.
•In general, the higher starting score, the longer it takes for the score to fully recover.
•Even if there’s minimal difference in score impact between moderate and severe delinquencies, there may be significant difference in time required for the score to fully recover.

This study provides good benchmarks of score impact from mortgage delinquencies. However, it is important to note that research was done only on select consumer credit profiles. Given the wide range of credit profiles that exist, results may vary beyond what's in the charts above.

My comments/analysis, below:

If you were to look solely at the score comparisons of a short sale and foreclosure in the chart above, you might say that there is no advantage to a short sale over a foreclosure...however, I believe the above article and accompanying charts assumed that for the short sale, (as well as the foreclosure),  the mortgage payments had been more than 90 days delinquent. But, that does not have to be the case. We have had great success in assisting clients with short sales who have never missed a mortgage payment or have missed just 1 or 2...thus, one could surmise that this type of short sale would have much less of a delterious affect on ones credit score.

A short sale undertaken early enough allows the borrower to mitigate a lot of damage e.g. not having to miss mortgage payments. Short sales can and are closed without missed payments... in a majority of cases the borrower's default need only be 'imminent'. I believe it is the 'days late' on the mortgage history that is the prime factor in the degradation of the FICO® score.

This article/chart does not reflect what is the impact of the typical language added by a short sale (i.e. 'settled in full for less than the full amount') WHERE THE BORROWER CLOSES THE SHORT SALE WITHOUT MISSING A PAYMENT? A foreclosure by comparison (and by definitiion) will always have many missed payments.

Also, FICO® score is not the only consideration when comparing foreclosures and short sales. You can qualify for home loan financing within 2-3 years after a short sale. It can be up to7 years after a foreclosure. In addition, the current standard residential loan application asks whether you have EVER had a foreclosure. It does not (yet) ask about short sales. So if you had a foreclosure, 15 years from now, you would have to say "yes" to that question, or risk a claim for loan fraud.

Then there are job considerations when affects of a short sale are compared to the affects of a foreclosure that this article does not mention. If you have to pass a security clearance for your job, a foreclosure may prevent the issuance of the clearance. In this case a short sale is a better choice.

If you are in default on your mortgage or at risk for imminent default I recommend contacting a competent attorney who truly specializes in defending and protecting howeowners in default.

Give me a call on my direct line at 561-602-1258 if you'd like to discuss your situation and options.

Thanks,

Steve

Short Sale Myths

RISMEDIA, May 13, 2010—With short sales making up almost 35% of home sales in March and the country with a national foreclosure problem, I Short Sale, Inc., one of the largest short sale firms in the U.S., sets the record straight on common short sale myths.

• You must be default on your mortgage to negotiate a short sale. Short sales are not a function of default status on a mortgage. They are the result of the bank mitigating a potential default situation that, in the long run, will cost more money to the investors. We have completed many short sales in instances when the borrower was not in a default situation.
• Listing my home as a short sale is embarrassing. Anytime we get ourselves into a tough financial situation it can cause some embarrassing feelings. It is important to remember that those feelings will not help us get back onto stable financial ground. We need to overcome our feelings and do what is right to protect our financial futures.
• Buyers aren't interested in short sale properties. Short Sale properties are often times available at a competitive price to other properties on the market. In many cases, short sale properties are very well cared for and have not had to endure the deferred maintenance of a REO property. Short Sale properties are in great demand in the marketplace.
• There's not enough time to negotiate a short sale before foreclosure. A good negotiator takes into account the timeline affiliated with a foreclosure. There is always a chance that a short sale can be negotiated. However, the only way to know for sure is to try.
• The bank would rather foreclose than complete a short sale. Banks do not want to foreclose on property. It is expensive and carries a high level of liability once the bank owns that property as an REO. Wherever possible, banks are seeking other loss mitigation options before foreclosure.
• Short sales are impossible and never get approved. Short sales are complicated, but not impossible. We negotiate short sale approvals every day.

FHA, 1st time buyers, short sales and perceptions...

Nearly 40% of existing homes purchased in November used an FHA-insured mortgage, according to a National Association of Realtors survey.

As a result, the FHA is having to defend the program, saying that it is well enough capitalized to avoid any major losses in case of surging defaults. Earlier this month, Department of Housing and Urban Development secretary Shaun Donovan was before Congress defending the FHA, and ensuring the House Financial Services Committee that the single-family insurance program is “not the next subprime.”

The increase in demand caused the capital reserve ratio at the FHA to drop below the Congressionally mandated 2% minimum, leaving HUD and the FHA scrambling to ensure the FHA program’s soundness.

A number of proposals are being considered, including the raising of insurance premiums, raising the minimum FICO (credit score) requirements, raising the minimum required down payments and reducing the allowable seller contribution...all of which will make it more difficult for buyers to qualify for and obtain financing (and hence, not good for sellers).

Other results from the Realtors survey showed first time homebuyers accounted for 51% of all transactions and are actively competing with investors for distressed properties...

And, distressed properties aren’t just affecting transaction price, however. The presence of distressed properties is influencing buyers’ perceptions of other homes for sale and many buyers have pricing expectations that treat every property as if it were a distressed sale.

Additionally, HUD issued a ruling that borrowers who were in default on their mortgage at the time of a short sale are not eligible for an FHA-insured mortgage for three years...

Short sale negotiation inside info

Every day we are dealing with lenders and are involved with negotiations on short sales. A recent hurdle has been the negotiations with 2nd lien holders (2nd mortgages/home equity liens). We thought that the following may be of interest to a lot of folks currently contemplating how or even IF they should do a short sale....

 These days many 2nd mortgage companies are now asking for 10% of their principal balance in order to release their lien. Prior to these recent changes, ALL 1st mortgage holders allowed a maximum of $1,000 to 2nd mortgages, period. Once 2nd mortgage holders started demanding 10%, it made obtaining approvals from both mortgages quite challenging. After all, 10% is quite a large number! And most 1st mortgages will only allow a maximum of $1,000 right?



Well luckily for our sellers, 1st mortgage holders have paid attention to the changing trends and have started to change their policies to match. Now, more and more 1st mortgage holders are allowing a payoff of up to 10% to 2nd mortgages to avoid any complications. And for us short sale specialists, this is helpful to successfully navigating a short sale for our sellers! One of the lenders that have started to be more open to this policy change is ASC.

Keep in mind, not all 1st mortgage holders are doing this, and it is on a case-by-case basis, but, they are at least open to it and some will approve 10% to be paid to 2nd mortgage holders.

Recap of market activity...

In this post, I will recap all of the current and recent market activity here in Winston Trails.

Currently On The Market:

• There are 22 homes on the market
• They range in price from $176,000 to $525,000
• 7 of the 22 are being marketed as Short Sales...although my review of public records indicated that aprox. 8 more would be "under water" and be short sale candidates if they were priced in line with recent sales.
• There are NO bank-owned homes on the market

Currently Under Contract:

• There are 18 homes "under contract"
• The 18 range in asking price from $175,000 to $370,000
• 12 of the 18 are Short Sales
• 1 is a bank-owned property
• In at least 2 of the remaining 5 sales it appears that the seller will be bringing money to the closing table (however that is not considered a short sale)

Sold within the last 60 days:

• There have been 11 sales recorded within the last 60 days
• Selling prices ranged from $135,000 to $315,00
• 5 of the 11 were short sales
• 1 of the 11 was a bank-owned property

1) London - $135,000

2) Cairo - $160,000

3) Oslo - $182,500

4) Doral - $249,900

5) Antilles - $253,000

6) Sydney - $255,000

7) Nairobi - $267,500

8) Nairobi - $270,000

9) Capri - $290,000

10) Paris - $292,000

11) Venice - $315,000

Foreclosure Actions:

Currently, there are 97 Winston Trails homes where a lienholder has filed what is generally known as a lis-pendens or notice of foreclosure action. Only a handful of the 97 are being marketed as short sales. I assume the rest are either hoping to catch up on back payments, negotiating forebearance agreements, short-re-fi's, deeds-in-lieu or are just hoping it will all go away.

If even only 30 of the 97 end up going back to the bank at some point in the future...30 bank foreclosures on the maket in our subdivision will serve to greatly exascerbate the difficult situation many current owners find themselves in.