Winston Trails Real Estate Lake Worth Florida

––For Every Two Homes Available for Sale, There Is One “In The Shadows”––

2012-01-25T18:50:00.002-05:00

CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, reported today that the current residential shadow inventory as of October 2011 remained at 1.6 million units, representing a supply of 5 months. This was down from October 2010, when shadow inventory stood at 1.9 million units, or 7-months’ supply, but approximately the same level as reported in July 2011. Currently, the flow of new seriously delinquent loans into the shadow inventory has been offset by the roughly equal flow of distressed (short and real estate owned) sales.
CoreLogic estimates the current stock of properties in the shadow inventory, also known as pending supply, by calculating the number of distressed properties not currently listed on multiple listing services (MLSs) that are seriously delinquent (90 days or more), in foreclosure and real estate owned (REO) by lenders. Transition rates of “delinquency to foreclosure” and “foreclosure to REO” are used to identify the currently distressed non-listed properties most likely to become REO properties. Properties that are not yet delinquent but may become delinquent in the future are not included in the estimate of the current shadow inventory. Shadow inventory is typically not included in the official metrics of unsold inventory.
Data Highlights:

As of October 2011, shadow inventory remained at 1.6 million units, or 5-months’ supply and represented half of the 3 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or in REO.
Of the 1.6 million properties currently in the shadow inventory (Figures 1 and 2), 770,000 units are seriously delinquent (2.5-months’ supply), 430,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.4-months’ supply) and 370,000 are already in REO (1.2-months’ supply).
Florida, California and Illinois account for more than a third of the shadow inventory. The top six states, which would also include New York, Texas and New Jersey, account for half of the shadow inventory.
The shadow inventory is approximately four times higher than its low point (380,000 properties) at the peak of the housing bubble in mid-2006. A healthy housing market should have less than one-month’s supply of shadow inventory, which would be an easily absorbed stock of distressed assets with little or no discernable impact on house prices, unless the inventory was geographically concentrated.
Despite 3 million distressed sales since January 2009, a period when home prices were declining at their fastest rate, the shadow inventory in October 2011 is at the same level as January 2009.
Because shadow inventory is often concentrated in suburban and exurban submarkets, where distressed sales compete with new construction sales, it is one of the reasons why new home sales continue to be weak. In normal times, new home sales account for 12 percent of all sales, but they are currently running at 7 percent of all sales.
Based on current estimates of the visible inventory (both distressed and non-distressed), the shadow inventory is approximately half of all visible inventory listings. For every two homes available for sale, there is one home in the “shadows”

“The shadow inventory overhang is a large impediment to the improvement in the housing market because it puts downward pressure on home prices, which hurts home sales and building activity while encouraging strategic defaults,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
The full report can be found at http://www.corelogic.com/ShadowInventoryOct2011.

I do follow CoreLogic reporting every month…however, there are other credible estimates of the shadow inventory 3-4 times what CoreLogic reports. That's very scary and is what is going to keep our values from increasing any time soon.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson
Call me directly at 561-602-1258

What if the Federal deficit was your household debt?

2012-01-20T07:02:00.001-05:00

Pre market. Awesome lot in The Greens

2012-01-19T16:43:00.000-05:00

Not yet on the market...but coming soon.

At the end of a cul-de-sac
Fully fenced yard
Accordion shutters up and down
Screened patio
Over 1800 sq feet under air
3 bedrooms plus a loft
Huge master closet
New A/C (2010)
Well pump for sprinkler
Original owner...lived in 1 month a year

Call me today to set up your private viewing.
561-602-1258

Thanks for reading...Steve

Winston Trails bank owned-new to the market

2012-01-19T16:24:00.000-05:00

A Gold Coast home has just been put on the market, it is owned by Fannie Mae. This bank owned home is a Monaco model: 1 story, 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 2 car garage, patio, 2043 sq ft under air.

This bank foreclosure is priced at $214,900...about $105/sq ft

Thanks for reading...Steve
561-602-1258

Are you “choosing” foreclosure?

2012-01-12T06:42:00.001-05:00

It frustrates me to see homeowners continue to stick their head in the sand and choose foreclosure. Yes, I said CHOOSE!

Foreclosure is a choice made by uninformed homeowners who have simply given up. No matter how frustrated you are or how grim the situation has become, foreclosure is almost never the right choice.

Below I’ll explore a number of ways to avoid foreclosure:

1) Loan Modification

A loan modification is an adjustment to the original loan terms agreed upon by the lender and the borrower. There are three areas that can be adjusted:

1 Interest rate (lowered either temporarily or for the life of the loan)
2. Length of the loan (extended to 40 years!)
3. Principal owed/Principal reduction (this is the least likely to occur)

Loan Mod Requirements

You will need to provide extensive documentation to prove why you need a modification. Your bank will go through a credit check, run an income vs.. expenses analysis, and then will do an appraisal on your home.

By most accounts, the loan modification programs, the most popular one was HAMP (Home Affordable Modification Program), many called it the “Obama plan,” have been an absolute failure. The criteria to qualify for one of these programs continues to change and most borrowers who have attempted them have been denied.

And those who were approved many times did not get approved for terms that would allow them to keep their home long term. That is why the re-default rate is over 50% within 12 months after a loan modification.

Our position on Loan Modifications has never changed: If your financial hardship is temporary and the savings from the loan modification will enable you to keep your home, then this is a viable option.

What to Watch Out For: Trial modifications that entice you into paying 3 straight payments and then once you do, they deny you for a permanent modification. But a crucial thing to watch for is when you are in a month over month holding pattern and keep getting told that your file is being reviewed the bank is moving forward with a foreclosure action!

2) Refinancing

If you are upside down, where you owe more than your home is worth, then the only chance to refinance will most likely be through the Home Affordable Modification Program (HARP). The Obama administration recently loosened the requirements to get into HARP in an effort to assist more underwater homeowners.

HARP Requirements:

Your loan must be guaranteed (owned) by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and have been since prior to May 31^st 2009.
You must be current on your existing mortgage and current for the prior 6 straight months
You can only have 1 late payment on your mortgage in the last 12 months

Contact your existing lender to see if they are participating in HARP.

HARP can be a long term solution if a homeowner can get into a lower payment they can afford. However distressed homeowners need to remember that this does not solve the fact that the home is underwater. In addition, it pushes your loan out 30 years again.

What to Watch Out for: Be on the look out for loan modification and refinance scams. Any time the media shines the light on some of these programs, scam artists try to take advantage of distressed home owners. Never pay any up front fees of any kind or any fees throughout the refinance process!

3) Forbearance

Forbearance is a special agreement between the lender and the borrower to delay a foreclosure and come to an agreement as to how missed payments (and associated fees) are to be paid back.

Is Forbearance Right for You?

Forbearance should only be used for a temporary financial hardship. If someone has a more long term hardship such as unemployment or underemployment then this is not a good option. The lender will not agree to forbearance unless the terms are favorable to them which may include a lump sum payment or tacking on any missed payment to the back end of your loan. Remember all of those payments that you don’t make get ADDED onto the end of your loan.

What to Watch Out for: Trying to obtain forbearance because you can no longer afford your home and you are upside down is a bad idea and only makes you further upside down.

4) Bankruptcy

Bankruptcy is the legal status of an insolvent person or business that cannot repay debts owed to creditors.

Is Bankruptcy Right for You?

Bankruptcy does not stop a foreclosure forever. But it will delay it and it may eliminate the responsibility for the deficiency balance on your mortgage.

Bankruptcy Requirements

Income and assets guidelines dictate if an individual or a household would qualify for it. If a foreclosure date does not allow for enough time to find another place to live, there are additional liens on the property that would prevent the home to be sold on the open market, or you are concerned that the bank will come after you for the difference, than a bankruptcy may make sense.

What to Watch Out For: Bankruptcy has the worst possible effect on your credit and should only be used when absolutely needed.

5) Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure

A deed in lieu of foreclosure occurs when a borrower conveys all interest in their property over to the lender to satisfy the loan that is in default and avoid foreclosure proceedings.

Is Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure Right for You?

A deed in lieu of foreclosure, is basically a “voluntary foreclosure,” since you are essentially handing over the property to the bank without them having to go through the actual foreclosure process. While a deed in lieu is easier than foreclosure, the only party who will reap the benefits of this program is the bank. The credit implications and impact on your ability to borrow money in the future are identical to a foreclosure. It is not looked upon favorably.

What Are The Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure Requirements?

Like many foreclosure alternatives, there is a long list of requirements that prevents many people from qualifying for a deed in lieu of foreclosure.

For example, other liens and mortgages may limit this option, and a true hardship must exist. Since the bank is not in the business of owning properties they will only consider this option if the loan is in default and they truly believe they will have to foreclose if they do not agree to it.

Lenders prefer short sales over a deed in lieu because with a short sale they don’t have to take over the property. Even under the Treasury’s HAFA program you are required to first attempt a short sale and if that fails after 120 days then you can apply for a deed in lieu of foreclosure.

What to Watch Out for: A deed in lieu does not automatically forgive the deficiency balance on the loan. Just like with a short sale you need to be sure the language in your Deed-in-lieu agreement waives any deficiency balance.

6) Short Sale

A short sale is the process of selling a home through which the lien holder(s) agrees to settle for less than they are owed.

Any unpaid balance owed to the creditors is known as the deficiency which, if negotiated effectively, is forgiven.

The main reasons our clients opt for a short sale over the other options are: debt forgiveness, credit impact, ability to purchase another home more quickly, the likelihood of a continued depressed housing market, selling with dignity, and moving in a more predictable and controllable timeframe.

We have found that many distressed homeowners will attempt some of the above methods such as loan modification, forbearance, and then leave a short sale for last. Then once the short sale is complete almost all of them wish they had done the short sale from the beginning!

Please…don’t wait until you get the “notice of foreclosure sale” served to you…give me a call now, we’ll discuss what your best option is and how to accomplish it. My direct line is 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading, Steve Jackson

Freddie Mac offers help for the unemployed

2012-01-06T17:22:00.001-05:00

Just this afternoon I received an email bulletin from Freddie Mac that may give some relief to unemployed individuals having difficulty making payments on a Freddie Mac loan.

Here is a brief overview with a link to the actual Freddie Mac document I received:

Freddie Mac, (Bulletin 2010-17), is introducing new forbearance requirements to provide a “short-term unemployment forbearance” relief option to assist Borrowers who are unable to make their Mortgage payment due to unemployment.

In addition, Freddie Mac is introducing an “extended unemployment forbearance” relief option to provide an extension of the forbearance period if such Borrowers have not regained employment after the short-term forbearance period has ended. Including these additional relief options in our loss mitigation tool kit gives unemployed Borrowers an opportunity to retain homeownership by providing Mortgage payment relief while they seek re-employment.

Servicers will have delegated authority to approve eligible Borrowers for a short-term unemployment forbearance period of six months during which time the monthly Mortgage payment is either suspended or reduced.

If the Borrower remains unemployed at the end of the short-term unemployment forbearance period, the Servicer must consider the Borrower for extended unemployment forbearance in accordance with the Guide.

If the Borrower meets the eligibility criteria for extended unemployment forbearance, the Servicer must obtain Freddie Mac’s written approval before entering into an extended unemployment forbearance plan with the Borrower.

EFFECTIVE DATE: Changes announced in this Bulletin are effective February 1, 2012 for all new Borrower evaluations for an alternative to foreclosure. However, Servicers may begin implementing the unemployment forbearance relief options earlier for all new requests for assistance in which an eligible Borrower’s hardship is unemployment.

If you have any question about Freddie Macs new plan, above, or any other questions regarding foreclosure alternatives, please pick up the phone and call me directly at 561-602-1258...or send me an email

Thanks for reading my blog…Steve Jackson

Steal this bank foreclousre in Winston Trails

2012-01-06T12:45:00.000-05:00

But you better be on my mailing list or see this as soon as it's posted!

Paris: 5 bedrooms, aprox 2750 sq ft under air, 3 baths, 1 bedrooms and full/cabana bath on 1st floor
Lakefront: Great northern rear exposure
Pool

ONLY $225,000!

To get on my HOT BUYS list...send me an email (click 'hot buys')

If you'd like to put in an offer on this home, give me a call at 561-602-1258

Thanks for reading...Steve

2 month payroll tax reduction=30 years of increased mortgage payments!

2012-01-03T12:31:00.001-05:00

The temporary extension of the payroll tax (and extended unemployment benefits) is being funded with fees from new Fannie and Freddie mortgages. BUT…these fees are not 1 time fees…these fees are not just for 2 months…these fees are not for 10 years (as mistakenly understood by the media)…these fees are for THE LIFE OF THE LOAN! 30 years if one keeps the mortgage!.

How in the world does this make sense? Add costs to an integral part of the WEAKEST part of our economy…add costs to the segment of our economy that almost all agree will have to spearhead any real recovery! And, with all of the political grandstanding about “getting the govt. out of mortgages”,..they have now tied the financing of this bill to ongoing underwriting of mortgages by Fannie and Freddie.

And now that the politicians have dipped into the Fannie/Freddie new loan pocketbook, I shudder to think of what they’ll try to fund through new loan fees to home buyers going forward.

Voice your opinion of this tactic when you exercise your right to vote!

Thanks for letting me vent…Steve Jackson

2012

2012-01-02T10:00:00.001-05:00

To help you celebrate and reflect here is a collection of quotes to start the new year.

Year’s end is neither an end nor a beginning but a going on, with all the wisdom that experience can instill in us. -Hal Borland

In the New Year, may your right hand always be stretched out in friendship, but never in want. -Irish toast

Your Merry Christmas may depend on what others do for you … but your Happy New Year depends on what you do for others. -Author unknown

Your success and happiness lies in you. Resolve to keep happy, and your joy and you shall form an invincible host against difficulties. Helen Keller

We will open the book. Its pages are blank. We are going to put words on them ourselves. The book is called Opportunity and its first chapter is New Year’s Day. Edith Lovejoy Pierce

One resolution I have made, and try always to keep, is this: To rise above the little things. John Burroughs

We spend January 1 walking through our lives, room by room, drawing up a list of work to be done, cracks to be patched. Maybe this year, to balance the list, we ought to walk through the rooms of our lives…not looking for flaws, but for potential. Ellen Goodman

Be always at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let each new year find you a better man. Benjamin Franklin

May the best of this year be the worst of next. Unknown

Resolve to make at least one person happy every day, and then in ten years you may have made three thousand, six hundred and fifty persons happy, or brightened a small town by your contribution to the fund of general enjoyment. Sydney Smith

Lets talk about loan modification...

2011-12-27T07:19:00.001-05:00

Over the past 3 years, banks have been given trillions of dollars from Congress (otherwise known as the US taxpayers) to motivate them to modify their home loans as the housing bubble collapsed. However, very few people have actually had their loans permanently adjusted, and instead, banks have been pursuing foreclosures at enormous rates.

Our opinion is that when it comes to loan mods, the homeowner who needs to be wary. On the surface, having the ability to lower ones payments an underwater mortgage certainly looks like a great deal, but we also know that the banks are on the edge of collapse due to the fact that the states and the courts are showing many of these entities do not have the proper documentation and ownership to actually foreclose on property.

The issue at hand is ownership of title, and rightful ownership of the actual note. When banks made their original loans to home buyers, they had the simple contract of title and note. However, when they sold the note to investments banks, who then separated the note from the title, and bundled these obligations with hundreds of others to create the RMBS, they simply put the title into a dummy holding company called MERS, and there was no longer a true and legal chain of ownership of the lien.

As time went on, some courts began to realize that the original banks, or the servicing agents who were simply collecting monthly mortgage payments, did not have the legal right or proper paperwork to foreclose on someones property.

So now, as a last ditch effort to compile the proper paperwork to satisfy the courts, banks are now suddenly offering loan modifications so that homeowners will by default, re-affirm the loan and justify a chain of ownership to the banks they did not have at the time of the foreclosure proceedings. Another important back-door trick of the banks is that they offer these "trial" loam mods, requesting all manner of financial documentation. And to get a loan modification, the homeowner needs to show income and assets enough to sustain payment on the lower payment. So most homeowner will go to great lengths to find and disclose and affirm assets and income that the bank may not have known about otherwise. Now, the banks know what assets to go after when they terminate the "trial" modification and foreclose instead.

In an article by Bruce Krasting on one of my favorite blogs, Zerohedge, he makes this assessment of the modification offers to homeowners:

One possible response would be to get all troubled borrowers to reaffirm their debt, the second is to get the trouble borrowers back to paying something on the mortgage, even if it were a fraction of what was formerly owed on a monthly basis. A loan modification would achieve both results. When a borrower signs up for a loan mod they sign new papers. A portion of this process will re-establish any loan balance that is due. The language in the mod could have new foreclosure terms that eliminate the banker’s problem with past tainted documentation. Once a borrower makes a few months of new lowered payments they are, in effect, confirming their acceptance of the new terms.

Most Mods go bust in six months or are cancelled for any number of reasons by the lender. So on the surface it would seem little is accomplished from the lenders perspective. But we think the lenders motivation for doing a loan mod is not to get a borrower to a monthly payment that they could realistically pay, but rather the motivation is to circumvent the foreclosure trap the lenders are in. A mod could legally resolve the problems.

To us, it appears to be a strong possibility that the banks and institutions that desire to foreclose on property are offering these modifications NOT as a means to help homeowners, but rather as a way to create new paperwork that will stand up in court, as well as uncovering assets and income that the banks may not have known existed, allowing the banks to foreclose and move on.

That being said, we have heard of homeowners that have received advantageous, permanent, modifications and are happy, keeping up with their payments, and keeping their home.

As we always recommend, any time your bank want documents from you or wants you to sign anything, contact a well educated and experienced real estate attorney.

You can also call us to discuss your options and the relative benefits/drawback to each...

or call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258

Thanks for reading...Steve

2011-12-24T05:29:00.007-05:00

Drawn by me...for you

Merry Christmas…Happy Holidays!

Sold today in Winston Trails...Paris/pool

2011-12-21T15:48:00.000-05:00

A Paris (5 bedroom, 3 bath, aprox 2800 sq ft under air) was just reported as sold today. It was a short sale...corner lot...pool...screened enclosure:. Sale price: $220,000

NAR..."oops"!

2011-12-21T12:54:00.001-05:00

I think it's time to tell everyone what I have known for a long time now...What the acronym NAR actually stands for. I know that they would like you to believe that it is 'National Association of Realtors', but the real truth, revealed to all recently is that NAR stands for: 'Numbers Aren't Real'!

The NAR US Housing Home Sales Figures were artificially inflated by at least 11% per year for the period of 2007-2010. Nice work NAR! They said there were a few "errors' in data collection and interpretation". And I think that it goes back to BEFORE 2007...why did they only go back and revise to that year?

“Sales were weaker than people thought (or were lead to believe by NAR reports),” said chagrined NAR spokesman Walter Malony. Data firm CoreLogic accused the NAR of over-counting home sales back in May of this year. At the time, the organization insisted that any issues with their numbers would be “relatively minor.” Unfortunately, NAR economist Lawrence Yun has revised that prediction to say that the changes in reporting will be “meaningful,” adding that “this means the housing market’s downturn was deeper than what was initially thought”.

Being in the business every day for a long time now, I began to see a slowdown in the 1st half of 2006 and an 'accelleration' in price and volume declines right at the beginning of 2007. My analysis shows that the air started to come out of the bubble, at least in Palm Beach County, right at the end of 2005.

I could go in to their methodology and poke a thousand holes in it...but I'd bore everyone but myself.

The readers who regularly read my blog posts will know that I don't "toe the line" when it comes to the NAR/FAR, etc. Coincidentally, a blog post I wrote just about 5 weeks ago, http://winstontrails.blogspot.com/2011/11/if-they-keep-predicting-market.html skewers the NAR for their inept (intentionally misleading) comments.

Below are the charts that reflect the adjustments.

So...what does this all mean? And why now? What is the effect of this revision?

Well, I think the "why now" question can be answered by NAR being called out on their numbers by CoreLogic a few months ago.

But the "what does this all mean" question has many possible answers depending upon the angle it is being viewed from. My obvious, but cynical, view is that the NAR and administration can now more easily report "improvments" in home sales. The new sales figures will be compared to the re-benchmarked historical sales and will paint a rosy housing and economic picture going forward. And if the reporters (TV and print) continue to just repeat data rather than dig in to the meaning of the data, the re-benchmarked (lower) figures will fade into distant memory...and the 'improving home sales numbers' will be evidence of our 'robust and recovering' economy.

Lastly, what does this effect? This question is better answered by a formally trained economist, but I have to believe that these numbers somehow impact GDP in a negative sense, retroactively.

If you've read this far, I commend you! Seriously though, if you are considering your options, whether it be selling or purchasing real estate, call me. You don't want to take the chance of ending up getting advice and consulting with an NAR drone who is taught to memorize "objection handling dialogs' and sales tactics.

My direct line is 561-602-1258 or

Bank owned homes in Winston Trails

2011-12-11T07:38:00.000-05:00

These homes have already been through the entire foreclosure process and have been taken back by the bank at a courthouse foreclosure sale:

Homes sold in Winston Trails

2011-12-11T07:00:00.001-05:00

There have been 5 closed sales since November 26th as buyers push to close before the end of the year:

Click on the image to see a larger, more clear rendering

Merry Christmas From Aunt Fannie and Uncle Freddie

2011-12-06T12:16:00.001-05:00

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are suspending evictions of foreclosed properties from Dec. 19 through Jan. 2, 2012.

The government-sponsored enterprises are the first institutions this holiday season to announce their annual moratoriums, which is a common practice in the housing sector to provide families a greater measure of certainty during the holidays.

During this period, legal and administrative proceedings for evictions may continue, but families living in foreclosed properties will be permitted to remain in the home.

The suspensions apply only to eviction lockouts related to REO properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and will not affect other pre- or post-foreclosure processes.

“The holidays are meant for families to spend time together, especially if they’ve gone through the stress of financial challenges and foreclosure,” said Terry Edwards, executive vice president of credit portfolio management at Fannie Mae, in a statement.

“No family should have to give up their home during this holiday season," he said.

Report: We Live in One of the Best Markets to Invest in Rental Property

2011-12-01T08:34:00.003-05:00

DALLAS, Sept. 13, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- THIRD QUARTER 2011 UPDATE -- HomeVestors of America, Inc., known as the "We Buy Ugly Houses®" company, and Local Market Monitor, Inc., a leading forecaster of real estate markets, today released the Third Quarter 2011 update of the "HomeVestors-Local Market Monitor Best Markets to Invest in Rental Property" ranking...The ranking is intended to help inform real estate investors of current rental property investment opportunities based on their potential future relative returns. The ranking is updated quarterly.
The ranking forecasts the expected performance of rental properties, specifically single-family homes maintained as rental properties. The ranking is calculated based on three-year forecasts of home prices (reflecting underlying home-price appreciation potential) and gross rents (as a proxy for potential investor cash flow).
Ingo Winzer, president and founder of Local Market Monitor, Inc., said: "A sharper than expected fall in recent home prices, which are down almost 5% in the last year, has led us to lower expectations for future prices. At the same time, however, higher inflation and slow but steady job growth should boost future rents. The desirability of investing in rental properties is therefore positive.
"The Future Relative Returns for large markets suggest that Las Vegas and Detroit are still very risky, highly speculative markets that could have a big payoff only if the local economy rebounds faster than we expect. The most interesting markets are in Florida and Arizona, where home prices have still not bottomed out but rents will eventually be supported by renewed population growth; investors in these markets must take a long-term view but will be rewarded if they can tolerate high vacancies for a few years."
David Hicks, co-president of HomeVestors of America, Inc., added: "What we're seeing in the marketplace reinforces the results of the latest ranking. Our franchises in West Palm Beach, Atlanta, Phoenix, Dallas, Fort Worth and Tucson all report a marked increase in investor interest in rental property opportunities. Investors are recognizing the potential for homes in these markets to produce above-average financial returns."
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We have been consulting with potential investors quite a bit lately. At certain price-points we have been finding many properties returning 10%+ cash-on-cash returns…that’s without accounting for tax benefits and the potential (albeit long-term) for appreciation.
If you’d like to discuss how to diversify some investments out of low-paying CD’s or volatile equities…call me on my direct line at 561 602 1258 or send an email.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Winston Trails SOLD property...last 60 days

2011-11-25T14:21:00.001-05:00

What is selling in Winston Trails? What is it selling for? How long is it taking to sell?

Below is a recap of the last 2 months of sales in Winston Trails using information from Palm Beach County tax records and Regional MLS info.

Total # of homes SOLD: 10
Lowest sales price: $140,000
Highest sales price: $335,000
Shortest # of days on the market: 38
Longest days on the market: 1106

Here in more detail, are the 12 sales:

The Greens, Montreal, aprox. 1600 sq ft, 3 br/2.5 ba/1 gar: $140,000
Oakmont, Antilles, pool, aprox. 2000 sq ft, 3 br/2 ba/2 gar: $190,000
Las Colinas, Sapporo, aprox. 1700 sq ft, 3 br/2 ba/2 gar: $205,000
Turnbury, Antilles, aprox. 2000 sq ft, 4 br/2 ba/2 gar: $210,000
Golfview, Nairobi, lake, aprox. 2000 sq ft, 4 br/2.5 ba/2 gar: $247,500
La Gorce, Casablanca, pool/golf, aprox 2075 sq ft, 3 br/2.5/ba/2 gar: $249,000
Shadow Creek, Paris, pool, aprox. 2750 sq ft, 5 br/3 ba/ 2 gar: $297,000
Sand Hills, Paris, lake, aprox 2750 sq ft, 5 br/3 ba/2 car: $300,000
Shadow Creek, Willow, pool, aprox. 3000 sq ft, 5 br/3 ba/3 gar: $330,000
Catalina, Silverado, pool/lake, aprox 2325 sq ft, 4 br/2.5 ba/2 gar: $335,000

Currently there are 30 homes for sale in Winston Trails. Based upon my experience selling Winston Trails, historically the time from mid November until about January 10th is the lowest inventory time of the year. Most sellers do not want to be bothered during the run up to the holidays and during the holidays. However, I have found that this is an excellent time for serious sellers to be on the market.

Typically, the buyers out this time of year are serious buyers and, as stated above, the inventory is usually at its lowest point. A serious seller, priced properly, marketed properly, and represented properly, should be able to get their home under contract during the holidays.

On the buyer side of the coin...there are also fewer buyers out there this time of year...making it a good time to make offers to serious sellers. It's a win-win over the holidays.

Thanks for reading...Steve Jackson

Contact me on my direct line at 561-602-1258

or email me

Preview of the Tuesday release of Case-Shiller

2011-11-24T09:30:00.001-05:00

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for September will be released next Tuesday, November 29th. Zillow chief economist Stan Humphries put out a forecast for the Case-Shiller HPI yesterday: Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.2% Decline from One Year Ago.

Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA) will decline by 3.2% on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will show a year-over-year decline of 2.8%. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be -0.2% and 0.0% for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
...
"We expect to see continued home value depreciation as unemployment and negative equity remain high and as the pace of foreclosures, kept artificially low since the robo-signing controversy, increases again."

A Thanksgiving message to our readers

2011-11-23T15:07:00.001-05:00

FHA going the way of Lehman?

2011-11-17T07:38:00.001-05:00

I heard this morning that the Federal Housing Authority (FHA), the government agency that insures residential real estate loans, has lost nearly all its cash reserves to cover losses. Since last year, these reserves have fallen from $4.7 billion to $2.6 billion.

Federal law requires it to maintain a reserve of 2% of the $1.2 trillion of loans it currently has outstanding. Reserves will fall from 0.5% to 0.24% by 2012. Independent analysts say that the agency is underestimating loan losses by at least $50 billion.

That means the FHA will need a bail out next year, and therein lies the problem. In its current gridlocked mode, it is highly unlikely that congress will approve the multibillion dollar refunding of a controversial federal agency. The “let the chips fall where they may” crowd seem to have the upper hand. The FHA currently insures one third of US mortgages, up 560% since 2006, largely through the demise of its private competitors. No insurance means no loans. For you and I that means lower home prices.

The FHA specializes in loans with less than 5% down. With home prices in a six year nosedive, more than half of these are now underwater. With $30 billion in liquid capital and $1.2 trillion in outstanding guarantees, it now has a 43:1 leverage ratio. Sound familiar? The shorthand for this is that the FHA is basically a government version of Lehman Brothers just waiting to happen.

This is a big concern here, locally, as a large percentage of the first-time buyers are FHA buyers. the under $200k market market is currently very healthy, but these under $200k homes are being purchased either all cash by investors or FHA by 1st time buyers…even some of the higher price buyers are using FHA loans as they are happy to have to have only a 3.5% down payment coupled with historically low rates…take away FHA? That would have a tremendously negative effect here in Palm Beach County.

2011-11-11T06:34:00.001-05:00

If they keep predicting a market bottom…eventually they’ll all be right!

2011-11-09T04:33:00.001-05:00

Just to say it at the outset of this post…why don’t any of the reporters, be it newspaper, online outlets or television, ever do any research and ask any tough questions when they continue to interview and quote the “experts” regarding housing?

Case in point: Here is a headline of an article/interview of Zillow chief economist, Stan Humphries, 18 months ago:

As Housing Market Nears Bottom, Pent-Up Supply Waits…And here is the prediction directly from the article: We forecast that the nation will hit a bottom in home values in the third quarter of this year, (which would have beenJuly-Sept 2010) but that there will be negligible appreciation in home values for three to five years after we’ve reached bottom…

Case-Shiller, an oft quoted research firm has this on-the-money prediction from an interview from November 30th 2009:

U.S. home prices are unlikely to fall much further in the next year even after a “discouraging” report on values in September, said Karl Case, the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Index.

“If I were betting even odds, I’d bet that we don’t have much further decline, but that we bounce along the bottom,” Case, a retired professor of economics at Wellesley College, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview…

And then here is a quote from an interview Shiller did less than 60 days ago: SHILLER: “House Prices Probably Won’t Hit Bottom For Years”

And the icing on the cake has been our own chief economist(s) of the National Association of Realtors:

04/2006: We can expect a historically strong housing market moving forward, earmarked by generally balanced conditions across the country and fairly stable levels of home sales with some month-to-month fluctuations.”, NAR

07/2006: “Right now we are on course for a soft-landing in housing.”, NAR

10/2006: “The worst is behind us, as far as a market correction. This is likely the trough for sales. When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market.”, NAR.

12/2006: “At least the bottom appears to have already occurred. It looks like figures will be improving.”, NAR.

01/2007: “It appears we have established a bottom” David Lereah, NAR Chief Economist.

07/2007: “Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year.”, NAR

11/2007: “I don’t anticipate any further major sales declines,” Yun said. However, the NAR didn’t anticipate the sales declines of the past two years, and it’s been predicting a bottom nearly every month since early 2006. (from Marketwatch)

02/2008: Reuters reports that “The NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the market is ‘scratching the bottom,’ with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months.”

02/2008, There is no chance of a large price decline in Rockford, Lawrence Yun told a crowd of more than 400 at Cliffbreakers, 700 W. Riverside Blvd. There is not a price bubble in Rockford., BusinessRockford.com (see July, 2009 news report below)

07/2008: There are signs of pent up demand . I think we are very near to the end of the housing downturn, Yun said.

12/2008: I would not have done anything different. But I was a public spokesman writing about housing having a good future. Ex-NAR Chief Economist Lareah.

04/2009: “We are close to the bottom, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Once home sales begin to rise that could boost home buying confidence and get others off the sidelines.”

04/2009: The “worst may be over” in parts of the West, said Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist.

07/2009: Follow up from 2/08 quote above: BusinessRockford.com – The local housing market showed few signs of rebounding in the first half of 2009, with sales of single-family homes and condominiums falling nearly 20 percent and median sale prices falling in all but two of the Rock River Valley’s largest municipalities... In Rockford, the median prices of the 61104 ZIP code are down 52.3 percent from the first six months of 2008, dropping from $64,950 to just $31,000.

Now, more than ever, it is so important to work with an agent that will consult, diagnose and recommend solutions based upon a multitude of factors…with the MOST important one being; what is in YOUR best interest.

In the past several years, I have ‘converted’ many buyers into renters, but also, some renters into buyers, because that's what we decided, together was the best option for them. I have also dissuaded many sellers from becoming ‘landlords by default’ and putting tenants in their homes while waiting for “prices to go up’ because they didn’t want to “give their house away”. On the flip side of that coin, I just had a conversation with a prospective client yesterday and we decided AGAINST selling, as the cash-flow the home would generate, along with the tax benefits of renting outweighed the prospect of home value declines…their time horizon was sufficiently long to mitigate the risk when compared to the monthly cash flow.

If you would like to discuss all of the factors that you should be considering, whether it be on the selling or buying side, please call me at 561-602-1258…or email me at Steve@TheJacksonTeam.com

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Home values, Negative Equity and Foreclosures...Zillow research

2011-11-09T03:14:00.001-05:00

Nationally, on a year-over-year basis home values were down 4.4 percent with the Zillow Home Value Index at $171,500. Overall, this quarter could have looked a lot worse considering all of the economic headwinds and turbulence that materialized over the summer. In terms of strict fundamentals, housing affordability looks compelling with big resets in home value levels and historically low mortgage rates. At this point, however, it’s clearly an issue of confidence, and high unemployment and economic uncertainty are not helping on this front. While we still have a ways to go in terms of home value depreciation, the pace at which home values are falling has declined considerably during the course of this year.

Nationally, foreclosure re-sales made up 18.9 percent of all sales in September, up slightly from the Q2 level of 18.8 percent. Foreclosure re-sales have, however, significantly increased from their Q3 2010 levels of 15.1 percent. This long-tailed foreclosure pipeline will continue to depress home prices moving forward...the large shadow inventory will keep pressure on pushing home prices lower. That is why year over year home prices are still falling:

Negative Equity

National negative equity edged up slightly to 28.6 percent , (the local negative equity figure is close to 50% when you count all of the homes that are within 5% of being in a negative equity position) of all single-family homes with mortgages, compared to 26.8 percent in the second quarter. Negative equity fell in the second quarter on the basis of sharp improvements in depreciation rates and flat foreclosure rates. This quarter, however, home values remained relatively flat while foreclosure rates slowed further, and these two factors combined to increase negative equity. (Because Zillow and other firms that calculate negative equity use valuations, each which has some margin of error, and because the number of homeowners just barely in positive equity is somewhat greater than the number who are just barely in negative equity, the estimation error will tend to incorrectly place more people in negative equity (who are, in fact, in positive equity) than is offset by incorrectly placing people in positive equity (when, in fact, they are in negative equity). This subtle point has the possibility of producing an upward bias in the negative equity statistic.)

People selling their homes in Palm Beach County lost money nearly 46 percent of the time during the third quarter of this year, according to Zillow. The percentage of Palm Beach County properties that sold for a loss between July and the end of September, was a 3.4 percent increase from the previous quarter and at an elevated rate predicted to continue through at least next year.

Any homeowner who is in negative equity and who experiences a financial setback, like a job loss, income reduction or divorce, will find their options limited. To sell a home while underwater means the seller must pony up the difference between the mortgage and the current value, or negotiate a short sale with their bank. Therefore, negative equity does open homeowners up to risk they would not otherwise encounter, and it’s important to understand the total universe of homeowners who have this increased risk.

If you happen to fall in to the 50% at or near being upside down and you need to sell or just want to know what your options may be, visit our blog http://www.shortsales123.com/, read some of the posts, then give me a call at 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

The two main economic theories

2011-10-31T06:53:00.000-04:00

2011-10-26T11:42:00.003-04:00

One of the best blogs I have the pleasure of reading is: Of Two Minds by the blogger Charles Hugh Smith. His post today falls right in line, and more eloquently expounds on, my earlier post regarding the new ‘underwater' re-fi plan announced Tuesday. Read it in its entirety, below.

Obama's Re-Fi Plan: The Perfection of Debt-Serfdom

How better to corral restive underwater debt-serfs than to herd them into accepting a new, "better" set of lifelong servitude shackles?

President Obama is taking credit for a new government plan to "save homeowners." That is of course pure propaganda to mask the plan's true goal: the perfection of debt-serfdom. The basic thrust of the plan is straightforward: encourage "underwater" homeowners whose mortgages exceed the value of their homes to re-finance at lower rates.

The stated incentive (i.e. the PR pitch) is to lower homeowners' monthly payments via lower interest rates.
This is the Federal Reserve's entire game plan in a nutshell: don't write off any debt, as that would reveal the banking sector's insolvency, but play extend-and-pretend with crushing debtloads by lowering the cost of servicing the debt.

The key purpose of this "plan" is to leave the principle owed to banks on their books at full value while ensnaring the hapless debt-serf (the "homeowner") into permanent servitude to the banks.
If the net worth of your home is a negative number, then what exactly do you own? You have the right to occupy the shelter, and you own the debt. So how is this any different from a lease? There is no equity, and no equity being built: there is a monthly payment in return for the right to occupy the dwelling.

The difference is the leaseholder can move at the end of the lease with no debt obligations. The underwater "homeowner" debt-serf is trapped by his/her mortgage into what amounts to lifetime servitude to the holders of the mortgage.

All the plan does is perfect this debt-serfdom. In a truly capitalist, transparent, free-market economy in which assets were always marked to market, then mortgages that are grossly misaligned with the market value of the house would be written down and the mortgage holders forced to book the loss.
Over-leveraged lenders, i.e. the "too big to fail" banks which dominate the U.S. mortgage market, would see their capital reduced to zero by the writedowns. They would be declared insolvent and liquidated. Their shareholders and bondholders would book losses.

But these losses are unacceptable in our crony-capitalist/cartel-capitalist Status Quo, so the "solution" to systemic insolvency is to manipulate the debt-serfs to keep paying, and thus keep the unicorn-and-pixies valuations of real estate on the banks' books at full value. (also…it moves the responsibility for any of these refinanced loans that default on to the backs of Fannie and Freddie …the US taxpayer)italics mine

This is the same game that Japan's lenders and Central State have played for two decades, and it remains the heart of their failed policies and decaying economy. In Japan, lenders papered over their bad debts with all sorts of back-door machinations: they extended new loans to debtors so the debtors could continue to make interest payments, they created zombie accounts filled with delinquent loans that were still kept on the books at full value, they wrote new loans at near-zero rates so interest payments were lowered, and so on--the same ploys and games being played by the Federal Reserve, the Federal government's housing lenders (Fannie and Freddie) and the banks.

The propaganda machine is running at full throttle, of course, with the usual parade of toadies and lackeys trotted out to say what a great and wonderful thing this plan is for poor homeowners. But industry analyst Ken Rosen inadvertently revealed the real motivation for the plan: to keep underwater homeowners from "walking away" in so-called "strategic defaults." underwater homeowners thrown lifeline by Obama (Mercury News).

Why is strategic default anathema to the Status Quo? Because the abandoned house will eventually have to be sold on the market, and at that point its true value revealed. The mortgage holder will then be forced to book a stupendous loss, and the inflated-paper "asset" on the books vanishes.

The Big Lie here is implicit: "your house will someday come back in value, so hang in there, debt-serf." No, it won't. The bubble has popped, and the mania has left town. Housing will retrace to pre-bubble valuations circa 1996-98.

As usual, the Plan is all about managing perceptions and political theater: we're here to help the little guy, the struggling homeowner; we are in charge, we have a plan, we're competent, this will fix the housing market.

Too bad they're all lies. Perception management is not the same as actually solving the underlying problem, yet perception management is the Status Quo's response to every problem.
The perfection of debt-serfdom is now complete. First, make student loans "necessary" for the "good life" and then make that debt permanent and unbreakable. In other words, institutionalize debt-serfdom and lifelong servitude to the financial sector.

The re-fi "plan" herds potentially rebellious mortgage debt-serfs into new corrals, with the incentive of slightly lower interest rates. The lifetime of servitude to financial Overlords remains firmly in place. That's the "plan."

The Administration is playing the HARP once more

2011-10-24T22:47:00.001-04:00

Today, in Las Vegas (appropriate place to announce this new gamble of taxpayer money), the President announced a reworked HARP (home affordable refinance program) that will allow for quicker/easier refinancing of underwater mortgages...no longer will HARP be encumbered by the measly 125% of market value...all restrictions are off!

Here are some of the details as reported earlier today:

The changes announced Monday are intended to benefit homeowners who have continued to make mortgage payments, even as home values have sunk, but lack at least 20% equity to refinance and take advantage of today's low interest rates. The revisions could also help some owners who are underwater, owing more than their homes are worth.
To be eligible, homeowners must have a mortgage sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac on or before May 31, 2009. They also must be current in their payments and without any late payments in the past six months.
Freddie and Fannie have also agreed to eliminate some fees on loans that run 20 years or less and lower them on longer-term mortgages. The exact amount won't be known for several weeks.
In some cases, borrowers will also no longer need a new appraisal on the home, which should reduce refinance costs.
DeMarco says the changes will not only help borrowers but will also lower risk to Freddie and Fannie because fewer borrowers will eventually default. (they actually think that refinancing a 50% underwater loan to save a few points off of an interest rate will have any measurable effect on default rates? they need to talk to the average person on that one). Freddie and Fannie own or guarantee almost half of all U.S. home loans and were taken over by the government in 2008 to prevent their collapse.

So...lets say you bought a $300,000 home here back in 2005. Financed 100% of it,as was all the rage back then...your payments of P and I are about $1800. Fast forward to today...that $300,000 home is now worth about $150k...you are upside-down $150,000. BUT, they'll refinance you at about 4.11% today...a payment of about $1450. Now, a $350.month savings is nothing to sneeze at...but is it enough to keep you writing those checks every month while still $150K upside down?

And here is the kicker: DeMarco says lender resistance is less likely now than in the past because there's less risk that lenders will be asked by Freddie and Fannie to take back loans that go sour if the mortgage-finance giants find that lenders made mistakes when they made the loans. So...what this means is that all of those millions of underwater loans with faulty paperwork (transfers/falsified affidavits and signatures etc) under risk for a buy-back call from Fannie and Freddie can now be wiped clean and fresh with a new refinance loan package that Fannie and Freddie will now give their blessings to and fully assume responsibility for (because it was re-financed and re-written to their new guidelines). Sooo...all those 'future defaulting loans' will now be fully on the backs of the taxpayers! Another back-door bank bailout.

As I have posted before...there are much better ideas for fixing this housing problem...I posted my own about 18 months ago...

But...it'll buy a lot of votes before anything hits the fan!

Is a SLARP next (student loan affordable refinance program)?

And that's just MY jaded view of it...

Thanks for reading,

Steve

Have a loan with BofA? NOW IS THE TIME TO DO A SHORT SALE!

2011-10-22T16:41:00.001-04:00

If you have a loan with BofA and owe more on your loan than your home is worth…DO NOT WAIT…CALL ME TODAY

(you’ll see why below)

Below is a partial screen-shot of an email that I recently received from Bank of America.

They are offering a MINIMUM of $5,000 paid to you, the short sale seller, at closing…and possibly as much as $20,000!

BUT…we only have about 6 weeks to get started.

Really, no kidding…if you have a Bank of America (Countrywide too) loan and are upside down…this is a great opportunity.

My direct # is 561-602-1258…if you reach my voicemail, leave me a message…or you can also send me a text to that number.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Thinking of buying a bank-owned home? Not so fast

2011-10-20T07:45:00.005-04:00

We have always counseled our clients that when buying a bank-owned home there are many pitfalls and caveats...but this Massachusetts court decision casts a very dark shadow on foreclosure sales:

Many buyers and investors flock to foreclosures because they think that's where the best deals are...but considering the above risk as well as the fact that some of the overall best deals are NOT bank-owned properties..we suggest that our clients consider other options that meet their investment/lifestyle criteria.

Please feel free to call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258 if you have any questions about the above court decision or would like to discuss your investment goals.

Thanks for reading...Steve

Winston Trails home sales, 2011..under contract, on the market

2011-10-17T06:19:00.000-04:00

72 total sales...7.5 sales per month
25% were distressed sales

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Aprox 4 months of inventory at the 2011 absorbtion rate
30% are distressed listings

___________________________________________________________________________________

22 homes under contract
64% are distressed sales

Upcoming rentals in Winston Trails

2011-10-14T08:14:00.001-04:00

We have been hired to handle the procuring of tenants for several properties in Winston Trails. The following properties have just become available for rent or will be available shortly...If you know of someone looking for a rental in Winston Trails, have them contact us right away so they can be among the first to have the opportunity to view these homes.

The Greens: 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 car garage, 1 story, aprox 1400 sq ft, patio...$1250 (call for special terms and conditions)

Oakmont Village: Nassau model, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2 car garage, aprox 2000 sq ft, pool...$1500 (call for special terms and conditions)

Catalina: 5 bedroom, 3 bath, 3 car garage, screened pool, aprox 2900 sq ft, gourmet kitchen, built-ins...$2800. Call for appointment

And, if you are a homeowner in Winston Trails that is considering renting your home, please give me a call and we'll discuss your goals and see how we can help you...My direct line is 561 602 1258,.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Bank Risk Managers: Home Prices Won't Recover Until 2020

2011-10-09T13:48:00.001-04:00

An interview of bank risk managers by Julie Crawshaw this past week on Moneynews.com revealed the sentiment that home prices are unlikely to recover before 2020 and mortgage defaults will persist for years.

The Professional Risk Managers’ International Association latest quarterly survey of bank risk professionals done for Fair Isaac Corporation shows that bankers expect delinquencies on consumer loans to rise, underwriting standards to become stricter, and the housing sector to continue struggling far into the future.

“Housing has been an enormous drag on the economy for over three years as U.S. households lost trillions of dollars in equity,” said Dr. Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer at FICO and head of FICO Labs.

“While the housing sector will almost certainly gain strength during the next nine years, many bankers clearly believe prices will remain depressed for half a generation." "This puts the devastation of the housing crash into perspective.”

Among bankers surveyed, 49 percent said that recovery would not occur until 2020 and 73 percent believed mortgage defaults would remain elevated for at least five more years.

Furthermore, 46 percent of respondents expected mortgage delinquencies to increase over the next six months, and only 15 percent of respondents believed mortgage delinquencies will decline during that period. Only 15 percent of respondents expect mortgage delinquencies to decline during that period.

Housing prices nationwide could keep falling and might not bottom out for years, says Yale Professor and housing expert Robert Shiller.

In February, Shiller said housing prices could still fall 10 percent to 25 percent in real terms before hitting bottom. He recently told Yahoo’s The Daily Ticker he's standing by the prediction, adding that the economic big picture is looking worse. "I think the economic situation looks more precarious now," says Shiller, one of the authors of the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which was down 4.1 percent year-on-year in July although up from previous months earlier this year.

My comments: These type of stories always intrigue me for the sheer fact of how superficial and incomplete reporting has become. The sentiment is interesting and accurate, on the surface. However, one of the most important details; What is the risk managers definition of “recovery”, was omitted. Does “recovery” mean that prices will regain the highs of 2005? Does it mean simply that 2020 is when they think prices will stop declining and resume a historical rate of modest appreciation?

And housing is inherently local in nature…while some markets may not “recover” until well after 2020…some have already neared a bottom.

Here in Palm Beach County, with about 50% of all homes with mortgages already in a negative equity position (under water) and a non-existent job recovery, wed are going to have continued mortgage defaults and distressed sales (short sales and bank-owned sales)…which will, in turn, continue the cycle of increasing the percentage of properties in a negative equity position and increasing the probability of further defaults.

I can guarantee, unless we have serious inflation, that 2020 will NOT bring back the good old days of 2005…and inflation may not even accomplish it without serious and stable job growth.

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Any gator fans out there?

2011-10-01T13:20:00.001-04:00

Ten foot gator pulled out of the lake at the 4 way on the south side of Bermuda Dunes at about 11:00 today!

Foreclosures in Winston Trails

2011-09-30T06:56:00.002-04:00

Below is a breakdown, by section, of the homes in foreclosure in Winston Trails. This does not mean that these homes are all 'bank-owned', it just means that they are in some stage of the foreclsoure process with just a small portion already owned by the bank;

Bay Meadow/Newport Village: 9
Barton Creek: 7
Bay Hill: 2
Bermuda Dunes: 3
Golfview Village: 12
The Greens: 22
Catalina: 5
Indianwood: 6
La Gorce: 4
Lake Nona: 2
Lake Shore: 3
Las Colinas: 4
Muirfield: 2
Oakmont: 2
Prairie Dunes: 1
Turnbury: 5
Sand Hills: 11
Shadow Tree: 2
Wedgewood: 2

Ocwen rolls out a new loan modification for underwater borrowers

2011-09-30T04:12:00.003-04:00

Finally a lender gets a brain! Locally based Ocwen recently revealed a plan that incorporates many of the components of a loan mod/refinance that I suggested about 18 months ago: Reduce the loan amount to todays value, write off the ‘underwater portion’ over a number of years if the owners stays current on all mortgage obligation aspects, and if/when the home is sold, Ocwen will recoup some of the regained equity…Brilliant! The other big added benefit to the lender is that they get to draw up new loan documents without all of the defects that are being challenged in court right now…and I wouldn’t be surprised if they slip in some new restrictive language to the now docs too!

For all of you with an underwater Ocwen loan…CALL THEM TODAY to see if you can qualify, then call me and let me know the details of the process/qualification/final terms so I can spread the news.
Below are excerpts from the article that was in the Palm Beach post.

The company is rolling out a new loan modification plan for underwater borrowers that lowers the amount owed on the loan - thus reducing the monthly payment - but asks for a share in the appreciated value when the house is either sold or refinanced.

The kickback to the lender may deter people who can afford to make their payments from defaulting, while giving an incentive to either the lender or investor to modify the loan.

"We think this answers some of the critics who say that by reducing principal, you are rewarding imprudent borrowing behavior," said Ocwen Executive Vice President Paul Koches. "What we see is unprecedented delinquencies, and we're doing our best to resolve them."

Offered in 33 states, including Florida, the plan is available only on loans where it will earn more for either the lender or investor than if the home went into foreclosure.

Called a shared appreciation modification, it's fairly simple on its face. A home's principal amount is reduced to 95 percent of the current market value. That portion is forgiven in equal amounts over a three-year period as long as the owner stays current on the loan.

When the house is later either sold or refinanced, the homeowner must give the lender 25 percent of the appreciated value of the home.

For example, say the principal balance on a loan is $125,000, but the current value of the home is only $100,000. Ocwen's plan would reduce the balance to $95,000, putting $30,000 in a non-interest-bearing account that will be forgiven over a three-year period.

If the house is later sold for $120,000 - marking an appreciation of $20,000 - the homeowner would get to keep $15,000, while $5,000 would go to the lender. If the home doesn't appreciate, then the sale occurs as it normally would.

Ocwen, which has about 245 employees in its West Palm Beach office, estimates about 53,000 homeowners nationwide will be eligible for the principal reduction program.

The company specializes in servicing the nation's riskiest home loans and has a portfolio of about 460,000 loans. Ocwen's recent acquisition of Litton Loan Servicing will add 250,000 loans to its portfolio.
A test of the new loan modification program that was launched last year found that of borrowers offered the plan, 79 percent accepted it. The default rate has been about 2.6 percent.

"You have folks breaking their necks to make payments on a home where there is no hope in their lifetime of it regaining equity," Koches said. "A homeowner in a negative equity situation is one-and-a-half to two times more likely to go into delinquency."

In Palm Beach County, nearly 43 percent of homes with mortgages were underwater during the first quarter of 2011, according to real estate analysis firm CoreLogic.

Most home loan modifications result in an interest rate reduction, which can do little in the long run for homeowners who owe more on their loan than their home is worth, said Kathleen Day, spokeswoman for the Center for Responsible Lending.

"We've felt for a long time that unless you do principal write-downs, you really aren't getting at the problem," Day said. "It's in everyone's best interest to keep a credit worthy person in their home."

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

10 million more foreclosures in the pipeline

2011-09-20T19:11:00.002-04:00

In August, the Obama administration asked the housing industry for ideas on how to more efficiently sell or unload this overhang, and the Senate heard testimony from various housing players Tuesday.

Roughly 10.4 million mortgages, or one in five homes with a mortgage will likely default if Congress refuses to implement new policy changes to prevent and sell more foreclosures, according to analyst Laurie Goodman from Amherst Securities Group.

At the end of the second quarter, more than 2.7 million long-delinquent loans, others in foreclosure and REO properties sat in the shadow inventory, more than double what it was in the first quarter of 2010. With the market averaging roughly 90,000 loan liquidations per month, it would take 32 months, nearly three years, to move through the overhang…and that number is contingent on NO other loans going into default.

"Many analysts looking at the housing problem mistakenly assume it is limited to loans that are currently non-performing (or 60-plus days past due). Such borrowers have a high probability of eventually losing their homes. However, the problem also includes loans with a compromised pay history; these are re-defaulting at a rapid rate," Goodman told a Senate subcommittee Tuesday.

Most of the proposals included recommendations to sell properties ‘in bulk’ to investors with one of the stipulations being that they be turned into rentals. (italics mine)

Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow, said the rental market is currently booming and would be able to handle a mass conversion of foreclosures into rentals. "Investors smell a distinct opportunity in this situation: The chance to buy an asset cheaply and rent it out. In fact, close to one-third of the purchases of existing homes this year have gone to all-cash buyers, the bulk of whom are real estate investors," Humphries said.

This sounds to me like the housing equivalent of ‘cash-for-clunkers’ which resulted in the removal from the market of tens of thousands of good, affordable used cars, as the requirement was to “junk’ the clunker trade-in (the dealers were not allowed to re-sell them)…The same thing will happen with homes; currently, a lot of buyers can’t purchase a great many of the foreclosed homes as they require too much work and/or don’t qualify for an FHA loan. Typically, the buyers in the under $250k market, (where a great percentage of the foreclosed homes sell), are FHA buyers because they DON’T have a lot of cash…so they are not able to ‘buy and rehab’. BUT, that is where cash buyers come in…they buy, rehab to move in condition, and re-sell…quite often to FHA or other low-down-payment buyers and they make a little money doing it…as they should. But if you take away these homes by requiring that they be converted to rentals, how does that help? Well, it helps the big companies, REITS, and investment groups that will get a piece of that sweet deal!

Just read my recent posts regarding the scary legislation working its way through Tallahhssee now…going to make it sooo easy, cheap and fast for the banks to get these homes back…We need everyone to PAY ATTENTION…and thanks for reading!

Steve Jackson

Reo's, Short Sales and Traditional Sales

2011-09-19T06:15:00.003-04:00

A short video with a quick explanation of the differences between standard sales, short sales and REO’s.

Foreclosures ramp up: County's 13% jump the trickle before the dam breaks, experts warn

2011-09-15T06:50:00.001-04:00

More Palm Beach County homes received first-time foreclosure notices in August than the previous month, and experts warned Wednesday that the 13 percent increase is just a trickle before the flood.

Statewide, new foreclosure filings were up 10 percent last month from July, according to findings to be released today by the Irvine, Calif.-based company RealtyTrac.

Nationally, initial notices of foreclosure were up 33 percent.

But unlike previous reports that found increases and decreases in foreclosure activity were similar nationwide, there was a marked difference in August between judicial states, where a judge is required to sign off on a home repossession, and non-judicial states.

In the 25 states RealtyTrac considers non-judicial, initial foreclosures leapt 46 percent in August from July, although they were still down 10 percent from August 2010. In judicial states, including Florida, there was only a 21 percent increase in August from July, with a 25 percent drop from last year.

"I've been told by a number of banks' lawyers that they have cases ready to go and are just waiting for approval to file," said Mike Wasylik, a foreclosure defense attorney with the firm Ricardo, Wasylik & Kaniuk, which has an office in Boca Raton. "I've been expecting the dam to break for months now and I think there is still uncertainty about what is going to happen with regulatory actions and pending settlements."

Foreclosures were suspended last fall following questions about the validity of court documents used to take back homes. Activity remained on a simmer through early spring and has jumped around since then as lenders continue to patch up their foreclosure processes.

The nation's largest home lender and servicer, Bank of America, confirmed Wednesday it had ramped up foreclosures in non-judicial states, including Nevada, which saw a 31 percent increase in new filings in August from July. California, also a non-judicial state, saw a 55 percent increase.

"Strong gains like that from July to August demonstrate our progress, clearing more volume to advance to foreclosure once we pass the numerous, improved quality controls we have in place and only after all other options with homeowners have been exhausted," said Jumana Bauwens, a Bank of America spokeswoman. "The industry has not yet returned to normal or necessary foreclosure activity levels, but progress is certainly being made."

Still, lenders face more uncertainty.

Earlier this month, the Federal Housing Finance Agency sued 17 financial firms for selling Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac billions of dollars' worth of risky mortgage-backed securities that turned sour when the market collapsed.

Also, settlement negotiations continue between banks and the nation's attorneys general. The attorneys general joined last year in an effort to investigate the robo-signing scandal, penalize lenders for their paperwork missteps and help struggling borrowers.

"The banks don't know what their exposure is from past problems or that they have resolved the problems to the satisfaction of the attorneys general," said Guy Cecala, chief executive officer and publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance.

But foreclosures have not come to a complete standstill.

Last month, 715 Palm Beach County homes were sold at auction - the final step in a foreclosure - according to Palm Beach County Clerk of Courts data released Wednesday.

Just 31 percent of scheduled auctions were canceled, a decrease from a high of 51 percent in January when banks hurried to delay sales in the wake of the robo-signing scandal.

The Palm Beach County clerk's office tallied 1,126 initial foreclosure filings last month. That's slightly higher than RealtyTrac's 926, but could be a function of when the numbers were gathered.

"We were anticipating another wave of foreclosure filings this year, based on expert forecasts, but so far an influx of new cases has yet to materialize," said Clerk Sharon Bock.

RealtyTrac has lowered its nationwide prediction of total foreclosure filings - initial notices, sale notices and auctions - for 2011 from 3 million to 2.5 million.

"As painful an issue as foreclosure is, it has to get back on track, otherwise we'll slip further and further behind," Cecala said. "The year 2011 will go down as the year that nothing got done."

If you have been reading my blog, you have read about the scary pro-bank bill under review now in Florida…my guess is that the banks are holding back go ing forward here in full force in the hopes that this bill gets passed in the dark of night. Then, the banks can EASILY FORECLOSE AND TAKE POSSESSION OF HOMES. The bill even has a provision that if you defend your foreclosure but the bank eventually does get to foreclose…YOU AND YOUR ATTY HAVE TO PAY THE BANKS LEGAL FEES!

Thanks for reading…Steve Jackson

Canyon of the Souls

2011-09-08T07:13:00.001-04:00

Our sales manager, John Durante, is an accomplished drummer/musician. Just days after the 9-11 tragedy, John and his band wrote this tribute to the victims. Below is the video of John and his band performing that song.

Your 2011 proposed property tax bill…think it’s wrong?

2011-09-05T09:42:00.001-04:00

At the end of last week you should have received your 'proposed' 2011 Tax bill in the mail. If you haven't taken the time to open it up and dig into it...now is a good time to do that. I have put together a short video regarding the tax bill/appeal. September 16, 2011, is the deadline to file a petition with the Value Adjustment Board to challenge a property’s market value, classification, or an exemption.

If you would like some help in determining if your assessed value is accurate, send John or I an email or give us a call: John can be reached at 561-685-1867 and I can be reached at 561-602-1258.

Also, below, I have placed several links that are helpful in navigating the tax appeal process.

Click on the image above to go to the VAB site for all forms and instructions.

And if you haven't received your proposed tax bill, misplaced it already or just threw it away, click on the image above and pull up your tax bill from the property appraiser site directly.

Click on this image, above, to go directly to the appeal form

Here is the link to the Frequently asked questions

portion of the appeal website

Thanks for reading our blog.

Steve Jackson

Shadow inventory Armageddon – Foreclosure timeline up to an average of 599 days with 798,000 mortgages having no payment made in over 1 year and no foreclosure process initiated. Shadow inventory grows to over 6,540,000 properties.

2011-09-03T08:21:00.001-04:00

From the insightful blog Dr.Housing Bubble comes this recent post:

The biggest problem facing the housing market is still the large amount of stubborn shadow inventory. The fact that this figure remains elevated is a sign that the banking system after all these years and trillions of dollars in bailouts has yet to figure out a streamlined way to unload properties. The Federal Reserve is trying to grease the wheels with historically low mortgage rates but that has done very little since this does not address the weak economy. At the latest count there are 6.54 million loans that are either delinquent or in the foreclosure process. This figure hasn’t really moved much for the entire year. Properties have been sold from the REO (bank owned) pile but this is the tiny chunk of properties that is covered by the mainstream news and also that appear in public listing services. As we will show in charts later in this article, only examining this piece of the real estate pool is like seeing the tip of an iceberg and thinking there is nothing underneath it submerged in the water.

The stagnant shadow inventory

The latest data shows that the shadow inventory has increased a bit in the last few months:

To break down the figures even further you have 2.48 million loans that are less than 90 days delinquent (3 missed payments), 1.9 million loans that are 90+ days delinquent (more than 3 missed payments), and 2.16 million loans already in the foreclosure process. In total, this adds up to over 6.54 million loans in the distressed pipeline and this is what I would categorize as the shadow inventory. As the chart above highlights, only about 500,000 properties are actually real estate owned and show up for sale in local MLS data (and not all REO show up but a lot do). The cure rates are abysmal on many of the loans and many are underwater to levels that will never cure on these properties. In fact, the latest data shows that the typical foreclosure process timeline is now up to a stunning 599 days!

“(LPS) The July Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. shows that foreclosure timelines continue their steady upward trend, as a payment has not been made on the average loan in foreclosure in a record 599 days. Of the nearly 1.9 million loans that are 90 or more days delinquent but not yet in foreclosure, 42 percent have not made a payment in more than a year with an average delinquency of 397 days, also a new record. At the same time, first-time foreclosure starts in June were near three-year lows, and first-time delinquencies accounted for only 25 percent of new delinquent inventory.”

Even more disturbing you have 42 percent of the 1.9 million loans that are 90 or more days delinquent not making a payment in more than a year (approximately 798,000 mortgages are going with no mortgage payment for more than a year yet no foreclosure process has been initiated)…

Even though properties are being cleared out via REO sales, this is a small fraction of the pool and it also doesn’t include the fact that tens of thousands of people each month are thrown into the distressed pool because of the economy. This is why you have a tough battle ahead…

The hidden cost of living

There is a good measurement tool over at MIT that is called the Billion Prices Project (BPP). This measure seeks to get a better idea of the real nature of inflation in the economy:

Contrary to what we are being told the cost of living is going up. You have a variety of things happening from producers chopping down ounces or repacking goods giving you less for the same price to energy costs still being high (a gallon of gas here in L.A. County is stilling running over $3.8). You also have health premiums going up all the while people have no growth in household incomes. Yet the MIT data shows year-over-year inflation is now up over 4 percent. This figure is incredibly high when there is no added wage growth (even a 1 percent spike with no wage growth is crushing). You don’t need to be an expert here but just look at your monthly purchases to see this revealed.

The big ticket items like housing have been falling but for most other daily goods the cost has gone up. This is why the bigger issues that will push housing lower are outside of the housing arena (i.e., jobs, healthcare, education, food etc).

In my humble opinion, it becomes a cycle of continually-declining prices; As more REO sales happen, the comparable sales values pull down the rest of the market values, throwing more homeowners into an upside-down position. The further upside down an owner is, the more likely they are to stop throwing good money after bad, even before they hit a financial speed bump.

If you own a home here locally and are nearing “downsizing age” or have another compelling reason to consider selling your home in the near future and you currently are NOT upside-down, do it now. I can’t even count the number of owners I have met with, from 2007 through today, who have uttered the phrase”I’m not going to GIVE my home away!” I can guarantee that all of them would be ecstatic to sell their homes for the “give away” price I advised them of back when we first met.

And the people I meet with today who say “I’m going to wait until the market gets better” will be longing for the summer of ‘11.

If you’re reading this blog because you’re trying to figure out what your best option is…just call me and together we’ll figure it out. 561-602-1258

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Is Florida the Next Non-Judicial Foreclosure State

2011-08-24T16:05:00.003-04:00

I have heard, second hand, that this bill has been shelved. I don't know if that is accurate or permanent, so...Please forward this blog post to every Floridian that you know or share it on your Facebook page…if this gets passed, it will be devastating for tens of thousands of homeowners. It will, in essence, take away the right to challenge the banks foreclosure (fraudulent documents and all) AND includes a huge disincentive to foreclosure defense attorneys from even taking your case.

If the mortgage industry has its way, the passage of a new bill floating around Tallahassee will ensure that Floridians will be displaced from their homes without legal representation or due process. In typical Orwellian style, this bill is entitled the Fair Foreclosure Act – it’s anything but . . .

Florida often makes the national news when it comes to foreclosures, and it’s never positive. According to a recent 24/7 Wall Street study, three of the ten housing markets most likely to collapse in 2012 are in Florida. Naples, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale all make the top 10, and the rest of the Sunshine State isn’t far behind.
In its preamble, the FFA actually says, “Once suit has been filed, the public interest is served by moving foreclosure cases to final resolution expeditiously in order to get real property back into the stream of commerce.” Of course, it is this glut of foreclosed homes flooding the real estate market that has all but ensured its collapse. REO properties typically sell far below market value, and when so many REOs exist, it drives the overall market to new lows. The vicious cycle is complete as more homeowners suffer increased losses from a down market.

So the bill’s stated purpose is flawed right from the outset, but getting our homes back into the “stream of commerce” really isn’t the purpose of the Fair Foreclosure Act. Its sole design is to take Floridians’ property without due process or equal protection under the law.

Florida has a proud history of whoring for the mortgage industry, and while states across the country are fighting to restore honor and integrity to our judicial system, Florida has taken a different approach. In Florida, the Supreme Court and our elected state officials are doing what they can to ensure their benefactors . . . the banks . . . get what they want.

Remember Foreclosure Court? It unconstitutionally employed retired senior judges to act as mortgage mercenaries – ramrodding defective foreclosures through the judicial system despite national ridicule. I am actually shocked it fell victim to Governor Scott’s massive spending cuts. That must have been a mistake.
Then, with the addition of Pam Bondi as our new Attorney General, the mortgage industry took firm control of our prosecutors as well. Ms. Bondi all but killed any investigation into foreclosure fraud, and fired two assistant prosecutors who gained national attention for piecing together a massive conspiracy by the mortgage industry to defraud our state court judges in foreclosure cases.

BUT, these acts of treason pale in comparison to the Fair Foreclosure Act, which proposes to do the following:

Where the amount of principal and interest equals or exceeds 120% of the just value of the home, it will allow the mortgage company to foreclose without going through the judicial process. That means no foreclosure complaint, no defense, no due process, no justice. It will be as easy to take your home as it is to repo a car.
It will repeal Florida Statutes § 57.105, which awards attorney fees to homeowners who successfully defeat mortgage companies in court. At the same time, it assesses attorney fees against a homeowner and his lawyer (in equal parts) if the mortgage company prevails. The design here is to stop consumer lawyers from taking any more foreclosure cases by making it impossible to make money and even personally expose the lawyer to penalties. Consumer lawyers will have no upside potential and all downside risk.
It will eliminate the right of a homeowner to set aside a wrongful foreclosure, even if the plaintiff committed fraud in the process of taking the home. The ONLY recourse would be awarding money damages. This language is to appease the title companies by retroactively ratifying all that foreclosure fraud that has taken place over the last decade. Once the bank takes your home, you’ll never get it back, no matter what.

The typical knee-jerk response is always that these homeowners are people who “got in over their head.” But such banking propaganda ignores the fact that 1 in 2 houses in Florida have no equity. So, according to bankers, half of Floridians are irresponsible homebuyers. Wall Street and greedy bankers created this horrible mess, but they want no part of shared sacrifice in cleaning it up. Middle class America didn’t cause this problem, and Middle class America shouldn’t pay for it.

We Floridians suffer from foreclosure fatigue, and the FFA will send us all over the edge.

This article comes courtesy of Chip Parker, A Jacksonville Bankruptcy Attorney. About Chip Parker, Jacksonville Bankruptcy Attorney

Chip Parker is the managing partner of the fastest growing law firm in Northeast Florida (two years running), Parker & DuFresne, P.A., and according to The Jacksonville Business Journal, he is an Ultimate CEO. Mr. Parker represents businesses and consumers facing bankruptcy, and homeowners in foreclosure defense actions. He is the recent recipient of Jacksonville Area Legal Aid's Award for Outstanding Pro Bono Service. Mr. Parker is an active member of the National Association of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys and National Association of Consumer Advocates

Winston Trails Average Sale Prices

2011-08-18T11:32:00.001-04:00

I put together this chart as I have found that most people I meet with can get a better understanding of trends from a graphic rather than words and numbers…it’s not pretty, but it is what it is.

View all of the Fannie Mae foreclosed homes in Palm Beach County

2011-08-17T17:47:00.001-04:00

Click on the Fannie Mae image and you will be able to see all of the Fannie Mae foreclosures in Palm Beach County.

If you are interested in seeing any of the homes on their list…call us at 561-432-5202 quickly as there typically are limited time periods for viewing/offers.

Dylan Ratigan says what needs to be said

2011-08-10T05:57:00.001-04:00

DylanRatigan.com

Most recent home on the market in Winston Trails

2011-08-08T19:23:00.001-04:00

Credit Ratings Downgrade for Fannie and Freddie Now?

2011-08-08T12:13:00.002-04:00

In what is shaping up to be an erratic trading day, the Dow has dropped below 3% in early trading after the latest news that Standard and Poor's downgraded the debt of mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

It was widely expected that S and P's downgrade of U.S. debt would roll downhill to other entities that are closely linked to the federal government. Fannie and Freddie, which were taken over by the government in 2008, fuel home sales by purchasing mortgages from banks.

It's not clear what - if any - effect the downgrade will have on Fannie and Freddie's borrowing costs. And since Treasury yields remain at very low levels, a sharp spike in mortgage rates seems unlikely.

I’ll let you know what effect this is having on mortgage rates as soon as I know!

Here is an update of what effects the Fannie and Freddie downgrade may have:
Not every type of consumer borrowing has a direct tie to the government's credit rating, but there are potential ripple effects for individuals.-- Mortgage and home equity loans--

S and P's downgrade may have several implications for homeowners.

For starters, early Monday S and P downgraded the credit ratings of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are both backed by the U.S. government. That could mean higher mortgage rates for new borrowers. Freddie and Fannie together own or guarantee about half of all mortgages in the U.S.

Anyone hoping to buy a home in the near future likely has some time before they'll see rates climb. Still they should ask their bank or mortgage broker about the process for locking in a rate. Mortgage rates have been at historic lows in recent months, but fixed-rate mortgages are typically directly tied to the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. Higher mortgage rates would follow any increase in the Treasury yield. But so far it appears that Treasury yields won't rise simply as a result of the downgrade.

Variable rate mortgages and home equity loans could become more expensive as well.

The high failure rate for adjustable rate mortgages during the housing meltdown means that today the number of new home loans with adjustable rates is minimal -- less than 5 percent of the market, according to Stephen Malpezzi, an economics professor at the University of Wisconsin Business School who follows the housing market.

What's less clear is how many older loans with adjustable rates remain out there, he said. With interest rates low in recent years, many homeowners who held adjustable rate mortgages have refinanced to fixed-rates. For homeowners who still have ARMs, any potential change in their interest rates depends on whether their loan was linked to Treasury rates or some other benchmark, like the prime rate or federal funds rate.

Meanwhile, home equity loans, or HELOCs, are almost always variable rate loans and typically adjust more frequently than first mortgages, sometimes even monthly.

Homeowners with such loans could see shifts in their rates and payments while the markets absorb the downgrade.

One caveat is that many ARMs and most HELOCs are tied to the federal funds rate, which is set by the Federal Reserve, not to Treasuries. That should help insulate borrowers. The Fed, which meets Tuesday, has already said that it plans to keep rates low for "an extended period."

"The Fed is not likely to increase the federal funds rate anytime in the near future, especially if there's another problem with the economy as a result of the whole debt ceiling thing," said Gibran Nicholas, chairman of the Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist Institute.

Thanks for reading,
Steve

Palm Beach County Inlet WebCams

2011-07-29T08:16:00.004-04:00

I thought these were cool...just click on the image above...hope you enjoy them!

Thanks for stopping by our blog.

Winston Trails: previous 60 days home sales

2011-07-28T12:41:00.001-04:00

Sales here in Winston Trails have been fairly good, numbers-wise, so far this year.

Total Winston Trails homes sold in the past 60 days: 12 (list/map below)
Of the 12 sales, 4 were bank-owned sales, 7 were traditional sales and 1 was a corporate sale

Total Winston Trails homes sold to date in 2011: 42
Average days on the market: 126
Average sales price: $243,650

With 43 Winston Trails homes currently on the market, and so far a Winston Trails home is sold 1 every 4.95 days...that leaves us with 212 days of inventory on the market currently.

If you own a home in Winston Trails and are considering selling now or in the near future, we should discuss the current market conditions and projections as they relate to your goals. If you are upside down or close to being upside down on your mortgage...it is even more important that we speak sooner, rather than later.

My direct line is 561-602-1258; call me.

Want a Google+ invite?

2011-07-22T13:12:00.000-04:00

Apparently, the only way to get on Google+ right now, during the roll-out phase, is to get an invite...well I was one of the lucky ones to get an early invite.

And if you'll send me an email with your name and email address I can send you an invite too! Email me here

Coming to the market soon!

2011-07-22T06:30:00.002-04:00

Occassionally, we get the opportunity to 'pre-market' a home for one of our clients. We 'pre-market' a home when the clients have hired us to assist them with the sale of their home but are not quite ready to allow the general public access to the home. This gives you, our blog readers, an opprotunity to be among the first to know about a property coming to market and to get on our list to tour the home as soon as it becomes available.

Click photo to see more information

The ultimate inside job!

2011-07-18T07:05:00.001-04:00

This is a must watch 3 minute video...

20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling

2011-07-14T17:54:00.004-04:00

Below is an excerpt from a CNBC interview today:

Today's guest, Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co. says another recession is brewing -- no matter what action the Fed takes. "Economic growth here and abroad is slipping, making a 2012 recession a distinct possibility," he writes in his July newsletter. And, "when you have slow growth it doesn't take much of a shock to throw you in negative territory."

Shilling says the shock to trigger the next recess is "another big leg-down in housing." (An asset class the Fed has not been able to reflate.) As those familiar with Shilling know, his forecasts are generally bearish. However, in his defense, Shilling was one of the few economists who correctly predicted the dangers of the subprime mortgage market and its impact on the broader economy.

The problem with the real estate market remains excess inventory. Based on Shilling's research, there are 2 million to 2.5 million excess homes in the country -- a supply that will take 4-5 years to work-off. The result: Housing prices will fall another 20% and underwater mortgages will balloon from 23% to 40%, he says. (the % of underwater mortgages in Florida is already just below 50%…)

With housing slumping again, Shilling says recession is coming to a town near you in 2012.

Well, lets illustrate just what that would mean for us, here; Assuming a current home value of $250,000...a 20% drop by the end of 2012 would bring that market value down to $200,000. It would then take five straight years of consistent 5% annual appreciation JUST TO GET BACK TO EVEN! (annual adjusted home price appreciation was 3.7% from 1968 through 2009). SEVEN years just to get back to even!

Mr. Shilling must finally be reading my blog...I have been sounding this alarm to my clients since the blogs inception.

If you are considering selling your home now or in the near future...most likely it will be better now than later. Call me at 561 602 1258, lets figure out what's best for your situation.

Thanks for reading,

Steve

20% Drop in Housing to Cause Recession in 2012, Says Gary Shilling | Fin - Daily Ticker - US - Yahoo! Finance

Homeowners association update

2011-07-13T10:42:00.000-04:00

As an update to a previous post regarding HOA meetings....I had commented that the idea of making the notice for upcoming HOA board meetings LESS visible was less than a good idea.

However, since we have one of the bestproperty managers around (if not THE best), Paula Rappold of Campbell Property Management, I have recently been informed that Paula personally makes sure that ALL of the master board and sub-association meetings are publicized well in advance on our community information cable channel 63.

Thanks Paula! Good job!

The essence of the banking industry...revealed in an obscure movie

2011-07-12T18:11:00.001-04:00

50 to 1...

2011-07-10T08:41:00.000-04:00

A recent report by LPS (Lender Processing Services) stated that there were 4,084,557 mortgages 90 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure as of the end of May. Contrast that with actual foreclosure sales at 78,676 at month end, the volume of seriously past due loans over-shadowed the number of completed foreclosures by 50 to 1, according to LPS’ May Mortgage Monitor report released last Wednesday.

That is very scary...for every home actually sold at a foreclsoure sale there were FIFTY in line behind it where the owners were 90 or more days behind in their mortgage payments!

Right now I don't have the actual figures of the percentage of people who fall 90 or more days behind and eventually catch up on their back payments, interest, penalties, attorney fees, etc....but I have to believe it is fairly low. Then throw in the possibility that a big percentage of those delinquent homeowners are in a 'negative equity' position and any reasonable person has to assume that the chances of those delinquent owners getting current or even having the desire to get current is miniscule.

Additionally, LPS’ analysis found that inventories of foreclosures in judicial states ( In Florida we are a judicial stae) have increased twice as much as inventories in non-judicial states over the last year as courts have become clogged with high volumes of cases and lenders have slowed their processing of foreclosures, particularly in judicial areas muddled by affidavit issues.

Nationwide, the average time spent in foreclosure continues to extend, with more than 33 percent of borrowers in foreclosure not having made a payment in over two years, according to LPS latest study.

LPS says overall delinquencies are almost double and foreclosures are eight times higher than historical norms.

So..what's my point in writing this post? Basically the same as many of my other posts, mainly "don't rely on what you hear on TV or read in the papers"...those stories present only a sound bite...there is no analysis, follow up or discussion. Many times there is an agenda or spin being promoted. It is easy to hear a 'housing is rebounding' story on a Monday and a 'housing is getting worse' story on Tuesday.

Draw your own conclusions from the above... but that information from LPS tells me that there are many, many foreclosures and short sales that will be continuing to hit the market in the next 3-4 years...continuing to contribute to declining home values.

If you are thinking about selling...call me and lets decide if it makes sense to do it sooner rather than later. If you are thinking about buying, lets sit down and explore your options and see if it makes sense for you to buy now.

My direct line is 561 602 1258

Or you can email me HERE

July 4th, 2011

2011-07-03T10:49:00.001-04:00

I am well aware of the toil, and blood, and treasure, that it will cost us to maintain this declaration, and support and defend these states. Yet, through all the gloom, I can see the rays of light and glory; I can see that the end is more than worth all the means, and that posterity will triumph.

John Adams, letter to Abigail Adams, July 3, 1776

Our clients and blog readers know before anyone else! Winston Trails, Paris model

2011-07-01T17:31:00.002-04:00

Coming to the market soon...call me today, 561-602-1258, to be among the first to view this unique Winson Trails home. Click on the flyer below to see the initial photo gallery and preliminary details.

Winston Trails...not yet on the market...but coming soon!

2011-06-29T04:08:00.004-04:00

Give me a call today if you are interested in this pre-approved short sale...it is not yet on the market, but will be soon. It is in great shape and a very good value...So if you want the first opportunity to view this home, call me right away: 561-602-1258

Click on the flyer for the details and additional photos

An important post for every Winston Trails homeowner...Winston Trails HOA

2011-06-23T07:23:00.001-04:00

Just last week, the Winston Trails board, and the individual voting members, had a meeting at the swim and racquet club. Other than the board and voting members there were only THREE residents there...myself and one other couple from Indianwood I believe. I don't know how many of you were aware that this meeting was happening, but I didn't know until someone told me just a few days prior. In the past, big, white signs were displayed by each entry/exit gate informing the residents of any meeting...but someone has recently decided to change this; no more big white, highly visible signs, but small signage (small and obscure enough that I haven't seen them yet) supposedly hanging on something near the entrances. The question is; why make it MORE difficult for the residents to become aware of meetings at which business affecting all homeowners is discussed and voted on?

Especially now, as the economic climate is unstable at best, and housing is one of the weakest links in the entire economic chain, we, as homeowners here in Winston Trails, need to know what our board and voting members are discussing, proposing and implementing.

I know that in my section, our voting member has never asked for input regarding any vote...and we (sometimes) find out about changes AFTER they have been made.

If it is the same in your section, I suggest that you call your voting member (usually your village president), and ask how the village residents can become better involved in the decision-making process...or at least how, in the future, you will be canvassed regarding the items being proposed.

I have proposed that our residents should be timely informed of ALL subjects discussed, proposed, passed, voted on, defeated, etc. And there are a couple of ways that this information can be very easily and quickly disseminated:

Have a member of each neighborhood board go to every owner individually and ask for an email address to be utilized ONLY for board business with a strict privacy policy. Then, any time there is an upcoming meeting, proposal, news item, problem, etc...everyone can be quickly made aware of it and be able to quickly give their input...this notice and response ability is lacking right now.
There is a community-run site, http://www.winstontrails.org/ that can be used to keep all residents aware of all community-related issues, meetings, news, etc. and can have minutes of all meeting and proposals uploaded and available for review by everyone.

If you'd like to know what is going on, or have any suggestions or information that I should post, email me or call on my direct line at 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Yun must be in The Twilight Zone...

2011-06-21T11:58:00.008-04:00

The stock market surges on DECLINING home sales...the 'market' expected the Natl Assn of Realtors report to come in at 4.8M, instead it came in at 4.81M and everyone is ecstatic! Last months sales were originally reported at 5.05M...but revised downward to 5.0M- (a common tactic...and watch, the 4.81 will get 'revised down' at some point).

And the NAR chief economist, Lawerence Yun, had the following (laughable) reasoning for the decline:...temporary factors held back the market in May... “Spiking gasoline prices along with widespread severe weather hurt house shopping in April, leading to soft figures for actual closings in May,” he said. “Current housing market activity indicates a very slow pace of broader economic activity, but recent reversals in oil prices are likely to mitigate the impact going forward. The pace of sales activity in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger than the first half, and will be much stronger than the second half of last year.”

I have to tell you...most of the time I am embarrassed to be a paying member of NAR. Spiking gasoline prices? Isn't that pathetic? You mean to tell me that Mr. and Mrs. potential homebuyer, just about to sign on the dotted line, decided that they couldn't afford a house because gas rose by forty cents? Let's figure this out; suppose that the average mileage is 18 MPG, the average miles driven per year is 15,000...that would be 834 gallons a year...at 40 cents a gallon hike that is an extra $374 per year, or an $31 per month, or an extra $7.75 per week! If $31 a month is turning buyers into non-buyers...they should not have been thinking about buying in the first place!

When are we going to get some truth out of the NAR PR machine? No wonder agents are regarded on par with the stereotypical used-car salesman...it is well deserved!

Happy Fathers Day

2011-06-19T07:10:00.001-04:00

To a child…LOVE is spelled TIME.

Click on the photo above…it will take you to see a touching and insightful 2 minute video about what is most important to your kids.

Blessings to all of the Fathers out there.

Bankruptcy Basics Video Series

2011-06-14T05:21:00.001-04:00

Questions about bankruptcy come up at a majority of my appointments with sellers who are upside down on their homes and trying to explore their options. I always defer to the experts on the subject: bankruptcy attorneys. But, I recently came across this series of helpful videos that will give homeowners a basic understanding of the various bankruptcy options. Just click on the video, below. You can then watch the entire series of nine short videos.

What about a loan modification?

2011-06-13T17:38:00.003-04:00

I periodically receive email news bites from a Miami attorney, Don Gonzalez (contact info below)...The most recent one, excerpted below, covers a subject on which I receive many questions...and Don discusses it clearly and succinctly:

Realities of a Loan Modification
On a continuous basis I see clients, as well as Realtors, who are interested in a loan modification. These individuals are clearly behind on their payments for a mortgage which is upside down. Upon falling behind, they are usually contacted by their lender. The client/realtor usually receives notification from their lender expressing interest in working with them through a loan modification. The lender will usually require that proper documentation be submitted, which generally includes bank statements, a hardship letter and tax returns, proof of income, etc. Once this documentation has been submitted, the lender usually responds with an offer to put this person on some kind of trial run, such as a three month payment period or something of a different nature. In order to undergo the so-called modification, one person that I know was required to pay a $20,000 lump sum payment in order to get a deferral on their remaining backlog of late payments. Typically, I have to explain to a client that the loan modification is usually not going meet their expectation if their expectation is a considerable reduction in principle balance...Income is one of the determining factors for a loan modification. Further, many lenders stress government programs to aid in loan modifications (such as the HAMP program). But, as of date, I have yet to see one actually go through.

In conclusion, I want you to understand that the expectation of a loan modification to be anything other than a reduction of interest rate is unrealistic (emphasis mine). This is a drop in the bucket if you are so upside down and behind on your payments and will not be of substantial value to prevent the loss of your home...As always, if you have any questions or need additional information, please feel free to email me.

Until next time,

Don Gonzalez, Esq

Don Gonzalez, P.A. provides the information in this email as a service to its email readers. While the information on this site deals with legal issues, it does not constitute legal advice. If you have questions related to the application of law to your specific circumstance, you are encouraged to consult an attorney who can investigate the particular issues of your situation.
DON GONZALEZ, P.A.
Attorney At Law
1820 N. Corporate Lakes Blvd.
Suite 201
Weston, FL 33326
954-598-0660
http://www.dongonzalezpa.us/
DonGonzalez@aol.com

6428 Grand Cypress Circle Winston Trails, Lake Worth Fl.

2011-06-11T06:28:00.002-04:00

It's Official

2011-06-02T07:06:00.005-04:00

The house price collapse is now worse than it was during the Great Depression.

That astonishing piece of information comes from the researchers at the think tank Capital Economics. It follows Tuesday's news from Case-Shiller that house prices fell again in March, as the double dip gets worse.

Writes Capital Economics' senior economist Paul Dales, "On the Case-Shiller measure, prices are now 33% below the 2006 peak and are back at a level last seen in the third quarter of 2002. This means that prices have now fallen by more than the 31% decline endured during the Great Depression." This is on a National basis...here in South Florida our price declines are even steeper....over 50% from the top reached in late 2005. We are now back to prices not seen since 1999-2000. (italics mine).

Capital Economics says the latest double-dip in housing should come as no surprise. It's very much following a pattern seen in the early 30s, when a brief recovery also petered out. The same has also happened in other big housing busts around the world, the think-tank says. It believes prices are going to fall even further before we hit rock bottom, maybe sometime next year. Last year, the 'experts were saying 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2011 would be the bottom...next year, they'll move their 'predictions' again. These 'experts' should ask someone actually IN the real estate business their opinion. I have been calling a 'sawtooth bottom' possibly by 2015; and that's only if all other housing factors (interest rates, loan qualification standards, mortgage interest deduction, etc) stay the same!

Is there a silver lining? There is if you have a long enough time-line.

If you can get the financing, housing is now cheap. At many price points, renting is more expensive than owning. Capital Economics calculated that housing is now the cheapest it's been in thirty-five years.

With mortgages rates still at all time lows, and inflation creeping in, housing here can be a good deal. But you'll have to be patient to see the biggest rewards. Capital Economics says, back in the Depression, it took 19 years for house prices to recover to their previous peaks....and it will likely take longer this time around.

Now, I'm no Harvard trained economist, but my understanding is that during inflationary periods, having fixed rate debt is a benefit...you're paying back your debt with cheaper dollars. And this is the theory behind what Fed is going to do to pay off OUR debt!

So, what does this mean for you?

If you're a seller considering selling soon or within the next few years...sell now...be the NEXT home to sell.

If you're a buyer...make sure that you have a very good reason for buying (and there are still many good reasons) and a long enough time horizon to ride out the value fluctuations ahead.

If you'd like to further discuss the implications of the current market economics for your specific situation, just call me on my direct line, 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Memorial Day 2011

2011-05-28T19:41:00.001-04:00

"Your silent tents of green
We deck with fragrant flowers;
Yours has the suffering been,
The memory shall be ours."

- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow -

Thinking of purchasing foreclosures as income-producing properties? This is a must read.

2011-05-19T12:29:00.001-04:00

If you’re planning to purchase an REO property in Florida for rental income, be sure to find out what rights you have as a landlord, as well as what laws there are to protect tenants. When buying a foreclosed home to rent out, the first thing you’ll want to do is find out if the home is currently occupied. If it is, the current tenant will have rights, and you’ll need to find out what they are. Rights to remove tenants are different when a home is foreclosed on than they are when the owner voluntarily sells the home.

Start with the federal laws. Those will usually trump most state laws, unless the state laws are more in favor of protecting the tenants. When you buy a foreclosed home that is occupied, make sure you understand how the occupants are protected under The Helping Families Save Their Homes Act of 2009 (specifically: Protecting Tenants In Foreclosure Act). If the current tenants were not the owners who were foreclosed on (or family members of the owners), you’ll need to give them 90 days notice of eviction if they were renting month-to-month. However, if they signed a lease, then you will have to allow them to stay until the end of their lease. An exception to this is if you are planning to live there yourself, in which case, you just need to give the tenants 90 days notice of eviction.

Once you’ve figured out what to do about the current renters, it’s up to you to decide whether to sign a new lease with those same renters or find new renters. In either case, you will have certain responsibilities as a landlord, and those will vary by state. Here are some things to keep in mind if you’re planning to become a landlord in the state of Florida:

In Florida, landlords don’t need to give a reason to evict, but they do need to provide notice. As a landlord in Florida, you will have to comply with local building, housing, and health codes and return your tenant’s security deposit or transfer it to the new owner.

You should learn about any exceptions to the landlord/tenant rights and restrictions in Florida. For example, tenants in the military or tenants who are victims of domestic violence are allowed to break their leases, as long as they go through the proper legal channels. Click here to learn more about the details of tenant laws protecting victims of domestic violence in Florida.

As the new owner of an REO property in Florida, you and your tenants have a right to utility services, and under Florida law, you nor your tenants can be charged for unpaid utilities from a previous owner or tenant.

If you have problems with a tenant paying the rent, you’ll have to file suit in the county court in order to begin the eviction process. The tenant has five days to respond to the suit, and if he doesn’t or if the judge rules in favor of you, the landlord, then the county court clerk will issue a “Writ of Possession” to the sheriff. At this point, the tenant will be forced to vacate the premises within 24 hours.

You, as the new property owner, are responsible for the maintenance and upkeep of the property. Be sure to respond within a suitable amount of time and address any legitimate issues appropriately. In fact, be proactive when you first take ownership and ask the tenants if everything is working properly. For more information about maintenance responsibilities and rights to inspect, Click Here to read about the Landlord Right of Entry Laws in Florida.

Of course, there is a lot more information out there to be learned. Make sure you are diligent about learning your rights and your tenants’ rights at the federal, state, and local levels. Renting out a property can be a great investment, but you have to know the property and laws before you really know what you’re getting yourself into as a landlord and an investor.

Links to More Information about Federal and Florida Rental Laws:

Summary of Landlord/Tenant Laws

National Low Income Housing Coalitions’ Renters in Foreclosure Toolkit

Article about Tenants Rights in Residential Foreclosures in Florida

Local Tenant Rights, Laws, and Protections in Florida from HUD.gov

After you have read and digested all of the above information and if you are still thinking that this may be the time to invest in some income producing property, send me an email or call me (561-602-1258) to get my free Income Property Evaluation Cheat Sheet.

As always...thanks for reading my blog.

Steve

New properties we are marketing in Winston Trails

2011-05-15T09:58:00.002-04:00

Recent sales of homes in Winston Trails

2011-05-15T08:59:00.003-04:00

There's good news...and there's bad news. The good news is that lots of homes are selling...the bad news is that there are still a lot of 'distressed sales' selling at low prices. As you'll see below, the disparity in sales prices between distressed properties and traditional sales of pristine, premium lot, upgraded homes is quite large.

Below are the details of the sales in our community in the last 3 months, listed by sales price, lowest to highest:

London - Green Island Drive: $145,000
Oslo - La Quinta: $176,000 Bank Owned
Antilles/Pool - Dornich: $203,000 Bank Owned
Hatteras/Lakefront - Astoria: $205,000 Bank Owned
Cairo/Golf - Barton Creek: $208,000
Fairfax/Lakefront - Remington: $215,000
Cairo/modified to 4 br - Muirfield: $222,000
Paris - La Gorce: $225,000 Short Sale
Venice - La Gorce: $225,000 Short Sale
Cairo/Canal - Prairie Dunes: $225,000
Venice - Sand Hills: $228,000
Doral - Bridgeport: $235,000
Nairobi/Pool/Lake - Prairie Dunes: $242,000
Willow/Lake - Shadow Creek: $260,000 Short Sale
Casablanca/Pool/Lake - Oakmont: $286,000
Venice/Pool/Golf - Shadow Creek: $290,000
Casablanca/Pool/Lake/Golf - Old Medinah: $300,000
Capri/Pool/Lake - Floridian: $310,000
Venice/Modified/Golf - Muirfield: $320,000
Venice/Modified/Pool/Lake - Sand Hills: $327,500
Paris/Pool/Lake - Indian Forest: $358,000

All of the information regarding the above sales is taken straight from Regional MLS and cross verified in the tax records.

Zillow says...Uh Oh!

2011-05-10T15:37:00.000-04:00

Miami-Fort Lauderdale Metro Zillow Home Value Index

Press Releases

First Quarter Home Value Declines Match Worst of Housing Recession; Bottom Unlikely to Appear Before 2012

Home Values Show Sharpest Quarterly Decline Since 2008; Negative Equity Rises to 28.4% According to Q1 2011 Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports

Key facts:

- U.S. home values posted their largest quarter-over-quarter decline since Q42008, falling 3 percent. Home values have fallen 29.5 percent from their peak in June 2006.

- Negative equity reached a new high with 28.4 percent of all single-family homes with mortgages underwater, up from 27 percent in Q4 2010, due to accelerating home value declines. Actually, in Florida, 48+% of all homes with a mortgage are underwater...and to top that off, about 1 in 5 are 90 or more days delinquent of their mortgages.

- New data reveals bottom in home values unlikely to appear in 2011. Zillow has revised its forecast and now predicts a bottom in 2012 at the earliest.

Happy Mothers Day

2011-05-08T07:18:00.001-04:00

Short sales, foreclosures and credit score

2011-05-01T06:11:00.001-04:00

Below, taken directly from an article recently published on the FICO® Banking Analytics Blog

Research looks at how mortgage delinquencies affect scores;

How much impact does a short sale have on FICO® Scores? How about a foreclosure? Since I frequently hear these questions from clients and others, I thought I’d share new FICO® research that sheds light on this very subject.

The FICO® study simulated various types of mortgage delinquencies on three representative credit bureau profiles of consumers scoring 680, 720 and 780, respectively. I say “representative profiles” because we focused on consumers whose credit characteristics (e.g., utilization, delinquency history, age of file) were typical of the three score points considered. All consumers had an active currently-paid-as-agreed mortgage on file.

Results are shown below. The first chart shows the impact on the score for each stage of delinquency, and the second shows how long it takes the score to fully “recover” after the fact.

All in all, we saw:

•The magnitude of FICO® Score impact is highly dependent on the starting score.
•There's no significant difference in score impact between short sale/deed-in-lieu/settlement and foreclosure.
•While a score may begin to improve sooner, it could take up to 7-10 years to fully recover, assuming all other obligations are paid as agreed.
•In general, the higher starting score, the longer it takes for the score to fully recover.
•Even if there’s minimal difference in score impact between moderate and severe delinquencies, there may be significant difference in time required for the score to fully recover.

This study provides good benchmarks of score impact from mortgage delinquencies. However, it is important to note that research was done only on select consumer credit profiles. Given the wide range of credit profiles that exist, results may vary beyond what's in the charts above.

My comments/analysis, below:

If you were to look solely at the score comparisons of a short sale and foreclosure in the chart above, you might say that there is no advantage to a short sale over a foreclosure...however, I believe the above article and accompanying charts assumed that for the short sale, (as well as the foreclosure), the mortgage payments had been more than 90 days delinquent. But, that does not have to be the case. We have had great success in assisting clients with short sales who have never missed a mortgage payment or have missed just 1 or 2...thus, one could surmise that this type of short sale would have much less of a delterious affect on ones credit score.

A short sale undertaken early enough allows the borrower to mitigate a lot of damage e.g. not having to miss mortgage payments. Short sales can and are closed without missed payments... in a majority of cases the borrower's default need only be 'imminent'. I believe it is the 'days late' on the mortgage history that is the prime factor in the degradation of the FICO® score.

This article/chart does not reflect what is the impact of the typical language added by a short sale (i.e. 'settled in full for less than the full amount') WHERE THE BORROWER CLOSES THE SHORT SALE WITHOUT MISSING A PAYMENT? A foreclosure by comparison (and by definitiion) will always have many missed payments.

Also, FICO® score is not the only consideration when comparing foreclosures and short sales. You can qualify for home loan financing within 2-3 years after a short sale. It can be up to7 years after a foreclosure. In addition, the current standard residential loan application asks whether you have EVER had a foreclosure. It does not (yet) ask about short sales. So if you had a foreclosure, 15 years from now, you would have to say "yes" to that question, or risk a claim for loan fraud.

Then there are job considerations when affects of a short sale are compared to the affects of a foreclosure that this article does not mention. If you have to pass a security clearance for your job, a foreclosure may prevent the issuance of the clearance. In this case a short sale is a better choice.

If you are in default on your mortgage or at risk for imminent default I recommend contacting a competent attorney who truly specializes in defending and protecting howeowners in default.

Give me a call on my direct line at 561-602-1258 if you'd like to discuss your situation and options.

Thanks,

Steve

Want some inside information on Winston Trails homes not yet on the market to the general public?

2011-04-27T11:58:00.005-04:00

One of the many benefits to working directly with us when buying or selling in Winston Trails is that we talk to many homeowners and buyers long before they 'pull the trigger' and decide to sell or buy. Quite often, we have an inside track on homes coming to the market soon, or buyers wish lists when there is noting currently on the market that meets their needs.

Below are a couple of properties that will soon be coming to the market, but are not yet available through any other agents:

Immaculate Venice model...rare three car garage...one of the best golf and lake lots in Winston Trails...pool...anticipated price in the mid $300's...pre-inspected and in perfect condition.

Original owner 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 1 story...large screened and roofed patio water and golf course views...anticipated price in the $225k range

Neither of these homes are short sales, meaning that a buyer can negotiate and close quickly.

Give me a call directly if you have an interest in either of these upcoming homes.
My direct line is 561-602-1258.

Thanks

Steve

2011-04-24T08:21:00.001-04:00

Do you have a Freddie or a Fannie?

2011-04-19T18:16:00.001-04:00

Each GSE as well as each lender has their own rules and guidelines regarding if and how they will proceed with a short sale.

If you are “upside-down” on your home and want to start exploring your options, one of the first things you’ll need to do is to check if you have a GSE loan.

I have provided 2 links below to help you out.

Freddie: https://ww3.freddiemac.com/corporate/

Fannie: http://www.fanniemae.com/loanlookup/

If you’d like to discuss your situation and possible options confidentially, please call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258.

If you’re upside-down, don’t wait…find out who has your loan…then call me.

Thanks for reading…Steve

Agents Google tricks...

2011-04-15T11:17:00.002-04:00

Technology...it, in and of itself, is neither good nor bad; it's how it is used that determines that. The reason I say that is because, recently I have been seeing this...as I'm sure you have, too:

Agents who want homeowners to think that they are a "specialist" in their neighborhood set up a free blog, then they put the name of the subdivision in bold throughout the body of some inconsequential post and throw in common search terms in bold with the hope that some unsuspecting homeowner or buyer will stumble across their blog/site and assume that they are an "expert" with vast experience in that community...

For example, I found two this week like that; one guy whose office is in Belle Glade put up a page peppered with search terms and then a woman who established 2 or 3 blogs peppered with bolded search terms. Experience? I think between the 2 of them they have sold 2 homes in our community!

I know Google has recently tweaked their search algorithm in an attempt to make their search results more relevant, but at this time, the algorithm is fooled by bolded search terms repeated throughout a page.

If you come upon a Realtors page like that...beware...this is the new way they are trying to trick you from the get-go. The old (and still being used) way agents tried to trick residents of a community was by sending out postcards/fliers listing "RECENT SALES", then listing the past 60-90 days sales in a community, all nicely positioned underneath their name and photo...in the hopes that the unsuspecting homeowner will think that agent sold all of those. Then, in very small print, at the bottom of the mail piece, is a cryptic disclaimer like this: "sales taken from the local MLS".

Starting out a business relationship by tyring to trick a potential customer...not good business, and not who you want to do business with.

Detailed community knowledge and vast experience; that's what you need to look for...not search engine tricks.

Foreclosure Backlog Stands at Thirty Times Monthly Foreclosure Sales Volume

2011-04-04T05:06:00.001-04:00

The ‘shadow’ market is not in the shadows any more…it’s becoming plainly visible…and the numbers are staggering. According to a report released recently by Lender Processing Services, “foreclosure inventory levels are at 30 times monthly foreclosure sales volume.” As a result of this massive backlog, we can expect more downward pressure on home values. The statistics on the homes not yet owned by the banks but are currently IN the foreclosure process are also staggering, with LPS reporting that the average loan currently in foreclosure has been delinquent for 537 days, and 30 percent of loans in foreclosure have not made payments in more than two years.

In part, due to slower processing times on foreclosures, it is unlikely that this backlog will disperse any time soon. In fact, although total loan delinquency has fallen nearly two percentage points over last year and foreclosure starts are down 14 percent from last year(partly due to the robosigning fiasco)…with the “non-current inventory” logging in at nearly 7 million, the backlog is likely here to stay.

Many analysts have been predicting that 2011 will be the beginning of a recovery for many sectors of the real estate market…but sadly, I are not on that bandwagon for us here in South Florida. Too much distressed inventory to work through…too many sellers that are NOT upside-down waiting for any evidence of stabilization to put their homes up for sale. Economics 101: Supply and Demand. There’s still an imbalance and will be for the foreseeable future. With this foreclosure backlog that we’ve been talking about for a looong time, we are quite pessimistic about the direction of local home prices.

And, what of the talk of the tightening of lending standards even further. Making 30% down the norm…increasing FHA down payments…interest rates going up…eliminating the mortgage interest tax deduction…does anyone really believe that these will HELP the housing market?

I, too, am a homeowner here in Palm Beach County…I’d love to be able to march in step with all of the so-called analysts/experts and say that the sun is getting ready to shine on our home values once again…but none of the evidence points to that.

However, there are still occasions where it makes sense for someone to buy; up to a certain price-point, thanks to low interest rates and 3.5% down-payment loans, it is less expensive to buy than to rent. And for buyers with a long enough time horizon there are some crazy good deals out there. Also, right now is a great time for investors as the cash-on-cash return is excellent for a big segment of the under $150k market. But when we, at The Jackson Realty Group, work with a buyer…we have them convince US (not the other way around) that now is the right time for them to buy. It’s not right for everyone right now. As a matter of fact, I find myself often recommending that renting is the best option for many clients who thought that they wanted to buy…but that’s what we do…we counsel and consult, we’re not salespeople trying to overcome objections!

For sellers (or those thinking about selling) we are saying “you want to be the NEXT home to sell”…in a market expected to continue its decline, it is expensive to wait.

If you’d like to discuss with me what your best options are at this point, either as a buyer or a seller, please call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258.

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

Our very own John Durante shares his secret tips each week...check it out

2011-04-01T06:45:00.001-04:00

Click on the image above to view dozens of our short video tips

shared by us to help save you money, keep you safe, make

your life easier, give you insider/little known info...and other cool stuff

Freddie Mac in the movie business?

2011-03-26T07:38:00.001-04:00

Freddie Mac has just made available, on YouTube, a series of videos called:
Get The Facts On Foreclosure.

In their own brief description on the channel, they say: "Welcome to our series, Get the Facts on Foreclosure, to help you separate fact from fiction."

The videos are done in a down-to-earth manner...not some government looking guy in a suit sitting behind a desk.

However, in my opinion, the FIRST words of the FIRST Freddie video should have been, "if you are in default on your mortgage, before you talk to us and give us any information, GO SEE A GOOD FORECLOSURE DEFENSE ATTORNEY." - but no lender is going to give you that advice.

I don't want to sound too cynical, but, remember, your lender is NOT on your side! They are trying to collect on a debt when you speak with them...they even say that at the outset of each call. They may try to "work something out" with you, but their goal is to maximize their return.

Having dealt with them many, many times during short sale negotiations...their good intentions and advice expressed in these videos should be taken with a grain of salt (or two)...but I applaud them for their efforts, none the less.

Nearly 20% of Florida homes are vacant - Mar. 18, 2011

2011-03-19T10:14:00.001-04:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's not always easy to feel sorry for sunny Florida. But they just got hit with another blow.

On Thursday, the Census Bureau revealed that 18% -- or 1.6 million -- of the Sunshine State's homes are sitting vacant. That's a rise of more than 63% over the past 10 years.

Having this amount of oversupply on the market will keep home prices depressed and slow any recovery.

The vacancy problem is more dire in Florida than in any other bubble market: In California, only 8% of units were vacant, while Nevada, the state with the nation's highest foreclosure rate, had about 14% sitting empty. Arizona had a vacancy rate of about 16%.

In Florida, the worst-hit county is Collier -- home of Naples -- with a whopping 32% of homes empty. In Sarasota County, 23% of the housing stock sits vacant, while Lee County (Cape Coral) has a 30% vacancy rate. PALM BEACH COUNTY has a vacancy rate of about 18%!

The housing recovery will take years, perhaps many years, to complete, according to Ingo Winzer, a housing market analyst and founder of Local Market Monitor.

Not helping is the the fact that the state's rate of population growth slowed in the second half of the last decade to just 5.7%. Still, the 2000s saw the state population grow overall by nearly 18%, the Census Bureau reported. I

"It will take about eight years just to put the vacancy numbers back into the single digits," said DeKaser.

The inventory overhang has sent home prices plunging. The median price for homes sold in January was just $122,000, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. That was down 7% from 12 months earlier and less than half the price at the peak of the market.

Winzer thinks prices in Florida will drop even more, another 5% in 2011 and 3% in 2012. "Even after that, they're not going to rebound, they'll just sit on the bottom," he said.

Celia Chen, a housing market analyst for Moody's Analytics, is also downbeat in her forecasts for Florida. Not only will prices fall another 11%, she said, but the bottom won't hit until mid-2012, about a year later than the nation as a whole. Some metro areas won't get back to their pre-recession peaks until long after the present owners are old and gray.

She doesn't expect Naples, for example, to come all the way back until the late 2030s. Other Florida metro areas with a 20-year wait or longer include Punta Gorda, Palm Bay and North Port.

"If you're buying in Florida for retirement," said Winzer, "maybe you buy next year when prices will be near the bottom. If you're buying for investment -- don't."

Foreclosures in Winston Trails

2011-03-14T05:17:00.003-04:00

The following is an alphabetical street listing of all of the homes in Winston Trails currently in some stage of foreclosure: (This does not mean that the bank owns these homes...yet). There are 133 homes on this list as of 3/13/2011.

Astoria-4
Barton Creek-7
Bay Hill-2
Bermuda Dunes-2
Crooked Stick-1
Dornich-1
Eagle Trace-3
Floridian-2
Grand Cypress-8
Green Island-10
Hatteras-4
Indian Forest-9
Indianwood Village-1
Kemper Lakes-1
Kingsmill-3
La Gorce-6
La Quinta-1
Lake Nona-2
Lake Shore Village-3
Las Colinas-6
Muirfield-5
Newport Village-7
Oakmont Village-3
Old Medinah-1
Perdido-6
Prairie Dunes-2
Remington-2
Royal Birkdale-6
Sand Hills-9
Sandy Hill-3
Shadow Creek-1
Shadow Tree-6
Silverado-1
Turtle Bay-1
Wedgewood-3

If you'd like some additional information regarding the above list...or would like to discuss your available foreclosure alternatives, call me on my direct line at 561-602-1258

Also, if your home is one of the homes listed above...NOT listed above but you are currently behind on your mortgage payments, or you are upside-down on your home (like 50% of all homeowners in Florida), go HERE to find out about the virtually unknown program that could help you tremendously.

We utilize a 'Ninja Tactic' to help our Short Sale clients

2011-03-07T18:54:00.002-05:00

Click the photo below and you'll be 1 step closer to finding out about a little-known Govt. program that we use that gets a short sale in Palm Beach County done in weeks...costs our clients nothing...GIVES our clients money at closing...and relieves our clients of any deficiency!!

Click the photo below and we'll see if you qualify:

Who wants to pay less for gas?

2011-03-02T17:35:00.002-05:00

If you want to pay as little for your next fill-up as possible...I am here to help you!

Not only do we look out for our clients and friends best interests when it comes to real estate...we also like to share when we find something that can save you money, keep you and your family safer or find out something that may be of interest to all.

Click on the image below to pay the lowest price per gallon possible on your next fill-up:

Click on the photo

If you want to see more of our tips that we send out to our clients and friends...click here

Winston Trails...priced like a foreclosure, but it's not!

2011-03-01T03:49:00.000-05:00

To schedule a private showing, call me at 561-602-1258 or eMail me

90-Day Guarantee? There's no free lunch!

2011-03-01T02:46:00.003-05:00

Once again, I have started to see this being promoted by mail and on the radio.

"If we don't sell your house in 90 days...WE'LL BUY IT!"

Sounds great...especially in this market. Worth checking out? That's what the agent is hoping you'll think. Get their phone to ring...but they'll most likely never discuss the details over the phone..."much to complicated and need to see your home to see if it qualifies"...get the foot in the door. But there is NEVER a free lunch; there is always a cost associated.

But, particularly in this type of market, it would be "good business" if the agent NEVER bought any homes, or if they did, that they were purchased at such a drastic discount that the seller could do better selling the home themselves.

I have gone to several seminars where they promoted this (tactic/gimmick) and it starts out sounding something like this:
" Mr./Mrs. homeowner, a big dilemma when making your move is deciding whether to buy 1st or sell 1st. Either way is risky as you could end up with 2 homes (or no home). Our unique/innovative/etc Guaranteed Sale Program solves this dilemma...you get our personal guarantee that if we don't sell your home in 90/120/180 days, we will buy it at a price acceptable to you. Now, WE take all the risk from you and you can immediately place a confident offer on another home".

The hidden details usually follow some or all of these general guidelines:

Must purchase one of the agents listings...or at least buy a 'full commission' home with them
Seller must still pay a full commission on the 'guaranteed' sale
Quite often an 'upfront' fee or guaranteed sale program fee of anywhere from $295 to fees in the thousands
"Agreed upon" price well below appraisal/market value...could be as low as the 80% range, then subtract commissions, fees, closing costs etc.
Original list price 5% below comparables
Seller is REQUIRED to continually lower the asking price during the 90 day (or whatever the guarantee period is)...for example: 100% for 1st 30 days, 90% day 30-60, 80% day 60-90, at which point they have reached their 'guarantee' point (but minus a full commission, etc.)
Sign the listing agreement first...then the guaranteed purchase details come later
May be a maximum allowable program price
Restrictions on home condition
Use the language "I'll buy it for 'list' price", but fail to say that the 'list' price is the 80% ENDING list price

If they'll buy it for the full price that they agree to list it for...then that's putting their money where their dog and pony show is.

Think about these few points:

With as difficult as it is to get a mortgage now, COULD your agent actually perform on their guarantee? Ask to speak with their mortgage lender...do your due diligence the same as you would with any other buyer.
If they don't need a mortgage and have a few $$million sitting around to buy homes that don't sell in 90 days, why are they a real estate agent?
Are they "flipping" the purchase option to an investor? Are they going to list the home for the investor once they buy it? Then why don't they get the investor to buy it from you...without the middle-man ans with you getting the higher price?
Can they assign the guaranteed sale price (as in a wholesaler)? Again...you're losing out.

Good, solid, cutting-edge marketing, a detailed understanding of the local and national economic factors affecting home values, subdivision level market knowledge, ability to analyze trends...trust and mutual respect...THIS is what is needed today...not a worn-out gimic.

Thanks for reading

Large housing inventories to be sold at deep discounts in 2011…and other stories

2011-02-22T07:24:00.001-05:00

From recent HousingWire news and other sources: (all italics mine)

Foreclosure filings and completed foreclosures will reach record levels this year, after lenders exhaust alternatives such as mortgage modifications (which have been hugely unsuccessful)…Analysts expect increased losses to residential mortgage-backed securities, as a result, because large inventories of foreclosed homes will be sold at deep discounts…

DBRS projects delinquency trends to continue climbing this year, as negative home equity persists, home prices remain down, unemployment stays high, and many borrowers have trouble refinancing due to tightened underwriting standards.

Analysts said the number of REO properties could double over the next 12 months to 4 million from 2 million, and it will take at least one to two years to sell those homes, further hindering recovery.

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Interesting research from PEW Local Trends that goes into great detail about Strategic Defaults..

What will be surprising to many is the dramatic increase in the number of homeowners willing to walk away from their underwater home. Just 3 years ago when we started reporting on this phenomena similar studies were done that resulted in fewer than 10% of those surveyed deemed strategic defaulting as ‘acceptable’. Now, that number is approaching 40%…

What this will mean going forward is that homes that are not even on the banks radar for potential default/foreclosure will be going back to the bank in record numbers, increasing the already lofty numbers of expected bank-owned properties.

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The mortgage interest tax deduction is being lead to the gallows for a little meeting with the guillotine…better known as the Obama Administration.

The National Association of Realtors is the lone voice in the blood thirsty crowd calling for the tax deduction to live on…

Here are the two sides of the argument:
The Off With Its Head…end the deduction argument: Why should non homeowners owners subsidize homeowners? Why are we punishing people for renting? Why create system that motivates people to buy more home than they otherwise would have? Why should the government incentive people taking on a mortgage thus, debt. (Sounds noble, does it not?….).

The ‘Let it live’ crowd’s argument: Owners are more stable, move less..invest more in communities. Owners spend more on home improvements and the like..thus, putting more money back into their communities.

I can tell you this for certain…regardless if you are red or blue…if the mortgage interest tax deduction, that will be quite a few nails in the housing coffin.

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Looming changes for Fannie and Freddie. The White House outlined last Friday its plans to begin shrinking their support of both of the government sponsored entities (GSEs) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While the process could take several years, the effects will be felt in coming months.

Everything about obtaining a mortgage loan is about to change. Vastly fewer people will have the financial ability to obtain a loan.

It seems that the current administration is attempting to move us away from a homeownership society to a generation of renters…however, if the tax benefits of owning a primary residence are removed, do you think that the tax benefits of investor-owned properties will be left intact? If there are greatly reduced incentives (or even restrictive penalties i.e.. rent control) for investors, whom do you think will own all of the properties that people will need to rent?…It will be local/state or federal agencies that become the new landlords…watch out for this!

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I post these stories and opinions not to alarm but to inform…there is so much ‘spin’ out there from the various interest groups that it is hard to know which way is up or down.

For certain individuals and investors, in very specific circumstances…now is a great time to buy. Conversely, with what I think is going to be happening in the next few years to the housing market, now is also a good time to sell…it is hard to see, but will be clear in retrospect.

Another one bites the dust...

2011-02-20T08:04:00.001-05:00

Century 21 Sunland Realty was the most recent, local, "bricks and mortar" brokerage to close up shop...but a recent story in the Palm Beach Post indicates that the real estate brokerage business is tough all the way around:

Back in the day, BuyOwner ran endless TV commercials with the tag line "Thanks, BuyOwner" ...but in the past few years it became increasingly difficult to sell a home by owner, and the business model (as I have heard) required an up-front payment sometimes upwards of $6,000 regardless of if the home ever sold...they gave you a sign, put you on their website and in a magazine...and you were on your own for all of the rest. Obviously that won't work today.

The for-sale-by-owner market has been almost eliminated in today's ultra difficult market. As an example of how important it is to have professional exposure, advice and guidance; ALL lenders require that they will not even consider any short sale application unless the property sale and marketing is being handled by a licensed real estate agent.

But this post isn't about using a real estate agent...it is about the overwhelming evidence that if you don't or can't quickly adapt to new technologies, business models, consumer demands and market conditions...you're a dinosaur...extinction will soon follow. Many of the big, local offices have closed, combined, merged or moved...who's next?

Being small...nimble...proactive, not reactive...not big-franchise, top-heavy, with layers of approvals necessary for any innovation, has enabled us to thrive even in the most difficult real estate market ever.

Our belief in and commitment to our motto, mantra, and corporate ideology is what has enabled our business to grow...we simply state it as "Personalized...Not Franchised"

Straight from one of our clients

2011-02-16T05:50:00.002-05:00

I'll just let the bank take the house....

2011-02-15T13:00:00.002-05:00

Courtesy of our friend and expert real estate attorney, Richard Zaretsky, comes this article that addresses a question that we get from everyone who is upside down or behind on their mortgage...(thanks Richard)

In the series of questions I get when interviewing a potential client who is upside down on his or her mortgage, one question always asked (especially after I quote my fee) is "What if I decide to do nothing?"

It is a legitimate question and with all the press (and misinformation) that abounds, it is hard for those in need of the facts to separate the reality from the imaginary. For example, The New York Times reported on December 2, 2010 that Florida was a "non-recourse" state (meaning that the lender could not pursue a borrower on the promissory note). That information was corrected but not until December 19th - and of the over 1 million print edition readers that saw the wrong information - how many saw the "correction"? To many readers with Florida properties, walking away and doing nothing for their underwater Florida property became a reality - albeit a false reality the fallout from which many a homeowner has yet to realize.

FALSE INFORMATION - The reality is that in all recourse states (Florida being one) and in many non-recourse states to the extent the mortgage and note do not qualify as a non-recourse obligation, doing nothing has essentially the same outcome.

As I pointed out in several of my articles and interviews (see CNN, Banks Begin to Go After Deficiencies, Foreclosure Consequences) unless the borrower has in writing from the lender that they are releasing the borrower from the further liability of the deficiency, there remains a valuable right to collect that deficiency from the borrower. That "valuable right" is just like a negotiable instrument - it can be sold for consideration (ie: $$$) and the lender does not even have to get a judgment first to be able to sell that right.

IT JUST DOESN'T MAKE SENSE - SO WHY BELIEVE IT?
So many people tell me "the banks are not going after deficiencies - because no one has money to pay them". Get real!!! First, my office has seen, since the first of this year (just 7 weeks), more people saying the bank is trying to collect the balance of the loan than ALL of last year! Why? Let's look at the economics of this deal. An accountant friend of mine created a sizable side business of buying defaulted credit card debt and uncollectable obligations like these deficiency rights. He would typically pay 3 to 10 cents on the dollar. Do you think he just wallpapered his office with these obligations he bought? No way! He had a machine of lawyers and collection companies that pursued these debtors and if necessary, sued them to collect. If he got only 15% of them to pay even a portion of the debt, he was way ahead and made a nice profit. He also had the luxury of waiting - since he had the statute of limitations to first even sue the debtor and then when he got a judgment, he could ride it out for years (20 in Florida). He even would sell the judgments he got so he recouped his attorney fees and filing costs and made a profit - and then the new owner of the judgment would do the nasty things to collect the judgment, like garnishment, attachment of bank accounts, and dragging the debtor to a deposition or court to expose and explain his current finances.

FALSE SECURITY
And a word to those that say they are judgment proof. That may be true, but that won't prevent a lender from being able to file an attachment or garnishment. What then happens is the bank with the account that may indeed be exempt, must freeze the account until a judge decides that the money in the account is exempt from the attachment, or the pay is exempt from the garnishment. In the meantime, the defaulted borrower has checks bouncing all over town! So judgment proof is not aggravation proof.

Now you decide - Is it a good idea to do nothing?

Copyright 2011 Richard P. Zaretsky, Esq.
------------------------------------
Be sure to contact your own attorney for your state laws, and always consult your own attorney on any legal decision you need to make. This article is for information purposes and is not specific advice to any one reader.
Richard Zaretsky, Esq., RICHARD P. ZARETSKY P.A. ATTORNEYS AT LAW, 1655 PALM BEACH LAKES BLVD, SUITE 900, WEST PALM BEACH, FLORIDA 33401, PHONE 561 689 6660 email: RPZ99@Florida-Counsel.com - FLORIDA BAR BOARD CERTIFIED IN REAL ESTATE LAW - We assist Brokers and Sellers with Short Sales and Modifications and Consult with Brokers and Sellers Nationwide! Shortsales@Florida-Counsel.com Website http://www.florida-counsel.com/.
See our easy to understand articles at:
TABLE OF CONTENTS - SHORT SALE AND LOAN MODIFICATION ARTICLES

We have a better option...Don't let the process be a unilateral one wherin the bank dictates everything...including how much you eventually owe! Call me directly to see how we can make the outcome shift in your favor with a bi-lateral negotiation. My direct line is 561-602-1258

Thanks for reading,

Steve Jackson

When will we get to the market bottom? The Shadow knows!

2011-02-08T10:22:00.002-05:00

Courtest of the Boom-Bust blog is this revealing graphic, below:

As you can see, the most recent update to the graph was the August 2010 data, but the trend is evident...

The graph shows the number of years needed to clear just the 'shadow inventory', indicated at three different levels:

A shadow inventory at 20% of sales
A shadow inventory at 25% of sales
And a shadow inventory at 30% of sales

Shadow inventory can be simply stated as: properties that are either already owned by the banks and have not been put on the market, properties that are in the process of foreclosure and will be owned by the banks at some date in the near future, or homes that owners desire to sell but are delaying putting on the market until prices improve.

The figures for the shadow inventory range from 1 million to over 7 million homes, depending upon the particular slant of who is estimating the data.

What is really most important to the majority of my blog readers is the shadow inventory here in Palm Beach County. And I have to believe that it is substantial.

Just in the 33463 and 33467 zip codes there are currently 1679 properties either already bank owned or scheduled for sale at auction....a very small % of which have made their way back on to the market...the rest are then: shadow inventory

The above number doesn't even consider the thousands of homes that already have a lis pendens filed by the lender for mortgage default.

The graph above displays 'national' estimates...with a 30% shadow inventory, it would taake over 7 years to clear the backlog at the current rate of sales! That would indicate a market bottom somewhere around 2018...With only a 20% shadow inventory, we're still looking at 2016.

Just to put things in perspective...as of today, there are 484 properties on the market in the 33463 zip...but there are 1010 bank owned or scheduled for auction...95% which are NOT on the market yet.

In 33467, there are 659 properties on the market and 569 currently in bank inventory or scheduled for auction.

If you'd like to discuss how to use this information to your benefit, just call me on my direct line: 561-602-1258.

An associated post from one of my other blogs also talks about the 'shadow inventory'

Thanks for reading!

The Bank Bailouts Explained By Two Bears

2011-01-29T23:31:00.002-05:00

Making your mortgage payments to BofA? GOTCHA!

2011-01-25T05:59:00.001-05:00

Bank of America has recently (and quietly) redefined their “grace period”.

When is a grace period not really a grace period? When you have to pay a $6 fee for using it. In a nutshell, you’ll have 6 fewer days of the old grace period to make your payment without being charged additional fees.

Consumers who use the bank's online payment tool, Mortgage Pay, will be subject to a $6 fee if they fund payments using another bank's checking account and the payment falls during the final six days of the traditional 15-day grace period. Consumers who make payments from Bank of America accounts are not subject to the fee.

"Let me get this straight. They tell you that you have a grace period, (then) they say, 'Oops, you only have half of it if you don’t bank with us,'” said Gail Hillebrand, a lawyer for Consumers Union who specializes in banking issues. "That doesn't seem fair. ... This looks like a new ‘gotcha,’ and we have enough of those already."

Some consumers who are being hit with the change didn't apply for a mortgage with Bank of America. Instead, the bank inherited their mortgage later by acquiring it as part of an investment portfolio purchase.

This is just another sneaky tactic form one of the TBTF banks that received billions of taxpayer dollars. basically, it’s either switch your account to a BofA account that has a bunch of garbage fees or pay us garbage fees directly for the privilege of paying us!

Nice.

Shadow inventory threatens housing recovery

2011-01-21T05:57:00.001-05:00

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- There is a growing glut of foreclosed homes threatening to hit the market over the next couple of years, potentially delaying any recovery.

There were 1.7 million homes either owned by the bank or in some stage of foreclosure at the end of the third quarter of 2010, according to a recent report by Standard & Poor's. It would take 44 months, at the current rate of sales, to sell them off -- a 25% increase from the beginning of 2010. (S&P does not count home loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.)…

next, my commentary…

The paragraph above, in and of itself is troubling…but when you look at the statement within the parentheses, it becomes horrifying! The most recent statistic that I’ve read estimates in excess of 65% of all loans as being backed by Fannie or Freddie…and this S & P report just decides to leave that out? I have been telling my clients for a year or more that this distressed inventory backlog will continue to drag home values down for several more years…coupled with no real plan or prospects for meaningful job and income growth, and the market looks very, very soft to me.

The following is from the recent Mortgage Bankers Association Delinquency Report, and will be a real eye-opener:

Number of properties that are 30 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure: (A+B loans) 6,870,000 !

Big difference from the widely published news story in CNNMoney…over 5 million more at least 30 days past due or further along in the foreclosure process.

And Numero Uno on the list of states with highest percentage of non-current loans…you guessed it: FLORIDA

So, 44 months to sell off 1.7M (and this doesn’t count all of the “non-distressed” homes on the market)…so how many months to sell off 6.8M? Well, using my middle school math, I came up with 176 months of inventory…That’s over 14 years!

Not to beat a dead horse, but if you are thinking of selling, even (especially) if you owe more than your home is worth…lets talk about your options, market direction, etc. Call me directly at 561-602-1258. If I don’t answer, please leave me a message

Florida is one of the eight-states-running-out-of-homebuyers

2011-01-20T04:28:00.002-05:00

by Douglas A. McIntyre, Michael B. Sauter and Charles B. Stockdale
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
provided by

The single biggest problem in the U.S. real estate market is simple: There are very few homebuyers.
That seems obvious, but the "buyers' strike" has caused house prices to drop, along with an epidemic of foreclosures. What's worse, the long depression in real estate is probably not over. S&P has forecast that home prices will drop by 7% to 10% this year. The S&P Case-Shiller Index has dropped for most of the 20 largest real estate markets over the last several months. RealtyTrac recently reported that more than 1 million homes were foreclosed upon in 2010.
Many economists argue that the housing market may take four or five years to stabilize. Even if that's proven to be true, the all-time highs of 2006 may never be reached again.
24/7 Wall St. looked at a number of the standard measures to find the housing markets facing the biggest problems attracting buyers. After a detailed examination, six metrics were chosen: (1) vacancy rates for 2010; (2) foreclosure rates for 2010; (3) November 2010 unemployment rates; (4) change in building permits from 2006 to 2010; (5) change in population from 2005 to 2010; and (6) price reduction by major cities for 2010. Taken together, they create a strong statistical base to describe markets which buyers have largely abandoned.
The real estate crisis has gone on for four years. In the states 24/7 Wall St. has chosen here, the crisis will go on much longer:

Michigan
Nevada
Arizona
California
Illinois
Georgia
Oregon

And: #8. Florida
Vacancy Rate: 21.03% (2nd Worst)
2010 Foreclosures: 5.51% (3rd Worst)
Decrease in Building Permits 2006-2010: -81.37% (3rd Worst)
Unemployment in Florida is 12%, the fourth worst in the country. (The REAL unemployment and under-employment is much higher) Approximately 1.1 million residents are out of work. Statistics show that 21.03% of the state's housing units are vacant. Furthermore, 5.51% of homes have been foreclosed upon. Florida was among five states that had the largest real estate booms from 2000 to 2006. Residential prices in some areas like…Palm Beach rose by much more than double during that period. New home and condominium construction soared. Many of those residences have never been occupied and are still part of the inventory of homes for sale.

If you are thinking about selling, now or in the near term, even if you owe much more than your home is worth, please call me directly at 561-602-1258. We just know how to sell homes, even in this market...I just put a home in The Greens under contract in under a week and had a closing yesterday for another Winston Trails seller for whom we applied a secret strategy that generated overwhelming property interest and a top price in about 2 weeks.

A nice letter from one of our recent clients

2011-01-11T18:29:00.000-05:00

Florida Attorney General 'Fraudclosure' report...Unfair, Deceptive and Unconscionable Acts in Foreclosure Cases

2011-01-07T07:18:00.002-05:00

Ever heard the term "All hat and no cattle?", that's basically what the AG report is...the 50 state Attorneys General task force on the issue has 'reportedly' already taken the bribe and settled with the big boys (see preceding post, below). This stuff should be the leading story of every news show.

The feeling it gives me is sort of like being in school...when the big kids cheat, then take your lunch money.
Florida Attorney General Fraudclosure Report | Unfair, Deceptive and Unconscionable Acts in Foreclosure Cases

Top lenders set for foreclosure settlement: report | Reuters

2011-01-04T12:41:00.001-05:00

And so it has come to pass..even the state Attorneys General are in the pocket of the TBTF financial institutions. The Attorneys General , on behalf of Fannie and Freddie, have ‘settled’ with the five biggest TBTF banks, for ‘future losses’ from the fraudulently written, fraudulently packaged, fraudulently rated and sold loans. Possibly the biggest fraud ever perpetrated will now, effectively, be swept under the rug in exchange for 1 or 2 cents on the dollar…I’d sure love a deal like that! (all emphasis, below, mine)

(Reuters) - The five largest mortgage loan servicers, including Bank of America Corp and JPMorgan Chase & Co, may be the first to settle with 50 state attorneys general who are investigating foreclosure practices, Bloomberg reported, citing Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller…

Ally Financial, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo could not be immediately reached for comment by Reuters outside regular U.S. business hours…

Here’s another report, below, from CnnMoney.com:

Is Fannie bailing out the banks?

Posted by Colin Barr January 3, 2011 10:11 pm

Financial stocks just caught fire. Someone must be getting bailed out, right?

Why yes, say critics of the giant banks. They charge that Monday's rally-stoking mortgage-putback deal between Bank of America (BAC) and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is nothing more than a backdoor bailout (QE4?) of the nation's largest lender (emphasis mine). It comes courtesy, they say, of an administration struggling to find a fix for the housing market while quaking at the prospect of another housing-fueled banking meltdown.

Monday's arrangement, according to this view, will keep the banks standing -- but leave taxpayers on the hook for an even bigger tab should a weak economic recovery falter. Sound familiar?…

And you don't need to be a conspiracy theorist to see that austerity talk in Congress means no more upfront support for financial firms. At a time of double-dipping house prices and nearly 10% unemployment, you can see where some people might find themselves devising new ways to prop up BofA and its housing-exposed rivals JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citi (C).

"This looks to me like a gift from Tim Geithner," said Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics. "There's politics all over this."…how sharp is Freddie if all it can do is squeeze a $1.28 billion payment out of a giant customer in exchange for relinquishing fraud claims on $117 billion worth of outstanding loans? The very best its million-dollar executives can do is claw back a penny on each bubbly subprime dollar?

…"How Freddie can justify this decision to settle 'all outstanding and potential' claims before any of the private-label putback lawsuits have been resolved is beyond comprehension," says Rebel Cole, a real estate and finance professor at DePaul University in Chicago. "This smells to high heaven and they should be called out."

Nice…

Palm Beach County Bar Association - Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program

2011-01-03T04:27:00.001-05:00

Below, from the Palm Beach County Bar Association website, I have the details, forms and FAQ’s regarding the Florida State Supreme Court mandated pre-summary judgment mediated meeting between the foreclosed-upon homeowner and their lenders representative…

What is foreclosure?
Foreclosure is a legal process by which the mortgage holder causes the judicial sale of the secured real estate to pay a defaulted loan. The mortgage on real estate acts as collateral for the repayment of the loan so when this loan is in default, the mortgage holder exercises its rights to take the collateral by selling the home.

What is the RMFM Program?
The RMFM Program is the Residential Mortgage Foreclosure Mediation Program that has been ordered by the Florida Supreme Court, and the Fifteenth Judicial Circuit Court. This program mandates that all homestead foreclosure lawsuits filed on or after July 12, 2010, be sent to mediation prior to any final order being issued.

How do I enter the RMFM Program?
All homestead foreclosure suits that are filed on or after July 12, 2010 will be automatically referred to the RMFM Program. The Program Manager will contact you based on information received from the lender. However, if you have been served with a foreclosure suit and/or your contact information has changed, please contact the RMFM Program directly at (866) 900-4254 (toll free)

I am a Homeowner who was served with a foreclosure lawsuit filed before July 12, 2010. Can I participate in the RMFM Program?
You may request a referral to this Program by filing a Borrower’s Request to Participate in the RMFM Program (download copy here). File this request with the Court and mail a copy of the request to the lawyer for the Lender.

Is there a cost to me to participate in the RMFM Program?
There is no cost to homeowners for this program. The Plaintiff (usually the bank) pays the required fees, which include financial counseling and the mediation session. In the event that you choose to have a second mediation session, you will have to pay $100, which is one-half of the fees for this session. The Program anticipates that one mediation session will be sufficient for most cases and this second mediation is optional.

What financial disclosure information will I need to provide to the lender to proceed to mediation?
Most borrowers will need to file the Foreclosure Mediation Financial Worksheet (click here for that document).
Homeowners must sign and then mail, hand-deliver or fax the Release (last page of the financial agreement) to the RMFM program before the Program can schedule mediation.
Mail or hand-deliver to: Palm Beach County Bar Association, RMFM Program, 1601 Belvedere Road, Suite 304E, West Palm Beach, FL 33406.
Fax to: (561) 828-3922
Email with Release as a pdf to mediations@palmbeachbar.org
Borrowers will need to file Fannie Mae Hardship Form 1021 if they are seeking a Short Sale or Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure. (click here for that form)
For short sales, borrowers also need to file a signed purchase contract for the residence or a listing agreement for the sale of the residence, a preliminary HUD -1 form, and written permission from the borrower authorizing the bank or the bank's representative to speak with the real estate agent about the borrower's loan.
For Deeds in Lieu of Foreclosure, a current title search for the residence should also be uploaded.

What is a short sale?
A short sale is a sale for less than you owe on the mortgage loan.

What is a Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure?
A Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure is when you voluntarily execute a deed that transfers the property to the lender in exchange for the lender canceling, in part or in whole, the debt owed on the property.

Do I have the right to consult with an attorney?
Yes. You have the right to consult with an attorney at any time during the mediation process and to bring an attorney with you to the mediation session. You do not have to have an attorney; you may represent yourself. If you cannot afford an attorney, you may call the Legal Aid Society of Palm Beach County and inquire about their pro bono foreclosure assistance program, Monday through Friday, 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m., (561) 655-8944 ext. 325 or (toll free) 800-403-9353 ext. 325. You may also contact the Lawyer Referral Program at the Palm Beach County Bar Association by calling (561) 687-3266 or (561) 451-3256 (Boca/Delray). There is a $30 fee for a half-hour consultation with an attorney through the Lawyer Referral Service.

Do all Borrowers who signed the mortgage need to attend the mediation session?
Yes, all Borrowers must be present at the mediation session. If not all Borrowers can attend, the Borrower not attending should bring a completed Power of Attorney for the other Borrower.

What happens if we cannot settle during the mediation?
The parties can agree to continue to another mediation session. If that session cannot be scheduled for the same day, this session is optional and both parties have to pay one-half of the fee, or $100 each for this additional session. If the parties cannot agree at all, and reach an impasse, then the case is returned to the court.

What happens if I do not attend mediation?
The case is returned to the court.

Link to Frequently Asked Questions About Mediation

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StreetInsider.com - Schiff: Look Out Below! Home Prices to Fall Additional 20%

2010-12-30T12:26:00.001-05:00

A ‘Happy New Year’ news story from Peter Schiff…one of the earliest predictors of the ‘pop’ of the housing bubble.

December 30, 2010 10:50 AM EST

According to Peter Schiff, the recent drop in home prices is unnerving, but there is still another 20% drop to go before we reach a historical trend line. (emphasis mine)

Schiff notes that some economists anticipate a further correction, but most don't believe that the vicious correction of 2007 and 2008 could return. To counter, Schiff notes that many underestimate how distorted the market had become.

From the start of 1998 through the middle of 2006, arguably at the peak of the market, the Case-Shiller 10-City Index rose an astounding 173% at 19.2% per year. Schiff notes that we now know that the gains had little to do with fundamentals and more to do with "distortionary government policies that mandated loans to marginal borrowers, and set off a national mania for real-estate wealth and a torrent of temporarily easy credit."

One of the co-founders of the Case-Shiller index, Robert Shiller, contends that home prices, from 1900 - 2000, followed a more muted 3.35% average growth rate, which included the Great Depression, post-war eras, and the boom of the 90's.

So, Schiff notes that in 1998, the Case-Shiller index was at 82.7. Following the 3.35% average annual price increase predicted by Shiller lands us at a point of 126.7 in October 2010. However, the Case-Shiller Index came in at 159.0, suggesting an additional 20.3% decline in the index to get it back to more normalized levels.

Schiff continues that no one is making a case that fundamentals have gained traction, and most point to government intervention as an artificial stop to the free fall. Programs like "the home buyer's tax credit, record low mortgage rates, government mortgage-assistance programs, and the increased presence of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Housing Administration in the mortgage-buying business" have put the kibosh on falling prices for now.

But, contends Schiff, with "bloated inventories, 9.8% unemployment (and much higher REAL unemployment), a dysfunctional mortgage industry and shattered illusions of real-estate riches, does it makes sense that prices should simply fall back to the trend line?" He argues that they will overshoot to the downside.

So what's the outcome? A major market correction in the next year.
Schiff thinks not, rather that there may be potential for an additional 10% dip below the 100-year trendline in the next five years, especially if mortgage rates continue upwards to more historical rates of 6% or more. He notes that that would put the index at 114.02, or about 28.3% below where were at now. Even a 5% dip would put the index at 120.36, about 24.3% below current levels.

Concluding, Schiff comments that, "In trying to maintain artificial prices, government policies are keeping new buyers from entering the market, exposing taxpayers to untold trillions in liabilities and delaying a real recovery. We should recognize this reality and not pin our hopes on a return to price normalcy that never was that normal to begin with."